Who is the Dem mystery recruit in TX-24?

[lfromnj]

Wait Martin Frost can also  make a comeback after the Delay mander?

Damn its coming full circle.

Nick Lampson can also run again.
Chet edwards has a very longshot path.

LOL texas is coming full circle.



Anyway If I had to guess its a state rep. Dems are starting to get a decent bench in these areas. This is easily the biggest recruitiment failure of 2018 for the dems .



Atlas still doesn't realize how good Texas dems are downballot after the Betowave. Holding 67 state house seats is VERY impressive. It gonna get worse in the 2020's. You can't exactly baconmander state house seats to rurals and the cities are growing more anyway so they get more seats.

TBH if I was marchant I would demand a regerrymander RN. Also the Texas GOP should politely ask carter or roger williams to retire in 2020 so they can create an Austin sink. Houston GOP and Dallas GOp(if the dallas county GOp even exists lol) would ask for the 32nd to made into a D sink district.



for the GOP a retirement might be better than an open seat. A young youthful candidate like Crenshaw would be better than Fat Pat 2.0.

[lfromnj]

Wait Martin Frost can also  make a comeback after the Delay mander?

Damn its coming full circle.

Nick Lampson can also run again.
Chet edwards has a very longshot path.

LOL texas is coming full circle.

Martin Frost for TX-24
Nick Lampson for TX-22
Chet Edwards for TX-31
MJ Hegar for Senate
Beto for President

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There is no need for them to retire. They can simply make one of the new districts TX will gain from reapportionment be the new Austin vote sink.

im saying they should delay mander aka mid decade for 2020.

Also Poor Sandlin gets left out as his area is trending GOP

[lfromnj]

My district so I have a couple of thoughts.

This is a very educated district and a somewhat diverse district.  Tarrant County GOP is currently in trouble with the in fighting over their vice chair.  I have no idea why this wasn't targeted in 2018 as it should have been since Marchant literally does nothing as a rep. 

As for Wendy Davis, I think she lives in Fort Worth so really not close to TX 24.  My guess is Marchant retires because he is too lazy to run a campaign, while the GOP nominates someone like Matt Rinaldi (especially if the crazies win out in Tarrant County).

Rinaldi is a horrible candidate and he rightfully got btfo in his state rep seat this year. A good GOP candidate to run to succeed Marchant is Jason Villalba. My current state rep, he got narrowly primaried out from the far right, and then the seat flipped blue.

I noticed you haven't commented on your district much. You live in the 32nd right? I thought you would be more happy about Sessions getting BTFO so much.
Also yeah Rinaldi would lose badly. he got comstocked. he lost by 15 POINTS lmao. .

[lfromnj]

My district so I have a couple of thoughts.

This is a very educated district and a somewhat diverse district.  Tarrant County GOP is currently in trouble with the in fighting over their vice chair.  I have no idea why this wasn't targeted in 2018 as it should have been since Marchant literally does nothing as a rep. 

As for Wendy Davis, I think she lives in Fort Worth so really not close to TX 24.  My guess is Marchant retires because he is too lazy to run a campaign, while the GOP nominates someone like Matt Rinaldi (especially if the crazies win out in Tarrant County).

Rinaldi is a horrible candidate and he rightfully got btfo in his state rep seat this year. A good GOP candidate to run to succeed Marchant is Jason Villalba. My current state rep, he got narrowly primaried out from the far right, and then the seat flipped blue.

I noticed you haven't commented on your district much. You live in the 32nd right? I thought you would be more happy about Sessions getting BTFO so much.
Also yeah Rinaldi would lose badly. he got comstocked. he lost by 15 POINTS lmao. .

I know Rinaldi would lose bad.  I'm not debating that at all.  My argument is that the GOP is dumb enough to let him win a primary. 

yeah the texas gop is at a breaking point and they need heal quickly. There was no ing reason for Greg Abbot to endorse Sarah Davis's challenger in a double digit Clinton and a +20 Beto seat. That is just asking for a loss.

[lfromnj]

My district so I have a couple of thoughts.

This is a very educated district and a somewhat diverse district.  Tarrant County GOP is currently in trouble with the in fighting over their vice chair.  I have no idea why this wasn't targeted in 2018 as it should have been since Marchant literally does nothing as a rep. 

As for Wendy Davis, I think she lives in Fort Worth so really not close to TX 24.  My guess is Marchant retires because he is too lazy to run a campaign, while the GOP nominates someone like Matt Rinaldi (especially if the crazies win out in Tarrant County).

Rinaldi is a horrible candidate and he rightfully got btfo in his state rep seat this year. A good GOP candidate to run to succeed Marchant is Jason Villalba. My current state rep, he got narrowly primaried out from the far right, and then the seat flipped blue.

I noticed you haven't commented on your district much. You live in the 32nd right? I thought you would be more happy about Sessions getting BTFO so much.
Also yeah Rinaldi would lose badly. he got comstocked. he lost by 15 POINTS lmao. .

I know Rinaldi would lose bad.  I'm not debating that at all.  My argument is that the GOP is dumb enough to let him win a primary. 

yeah the texas gop is at a breaking point and they need heal quickly. There was no ing reason for Greg Abbot to endorse Sarah Davis's challenger in a double digit Clinton and a +20 Beto seat. That is just asking for a loss.

I just keep shaking my head in astonishment at things like Sarah Davis' district being a Beto +20 district. LOL.

Im not sure if it is Beto +20 but it is probably really high as I remember reading somewhere Clinton carried by double digits. I am assuming it is a Beto +20 district. The fact is that the Texas GOP needs candidates like Sarah Davis to hold on in these areas rather than alienating them.

[lfromnj]

Im not sure if it is Beto +20 but it is probably really high as I remember reading somewhere Clinton carried by double digits. I am assuming it is a Beto +20 district. The fact is that the Texas GOP needs candidates like Sarah Davis to hold on in these areas rather than alienating them.

It is going to become harder for her to keep winning GOP primaries though, because more of the moderate former Rs are going to start voting in D primaries.

So the opposite is more likely to happen, and people like her are if anything at increased risk of being purged.

https://www.texasobserver.org/will-sarah-davis-odd-duck-district-keep-the-legislatures-most-moderate-republican/

Its a romney +15 to Clinton +15 district. She is a smart person who realized she had to moderate after that. It is a very elastic district so Beto might even have carried it by a very large amount.

[lfromnj]

He's retiring and a Republican will win the election to replace him.

TBH, Marchant is a stronger candidate than any other local Republican would be. They'd be crazy to replace him and have the seat be an open seat. At least he has some name recognition: there are people who pass exit signs for Marchant Boulevard every day on their commute. (I only mean this last part half-jokingly: given how little the guy does, the highway exit named after him is the main way people will encounter his name, but it is at least a way they're encountering his name)

Ik you live there but I disagree. Marchant seems like another lazy incumvent. If ted poe ran I think he would have only by 5 or 6 points.Crenshaw was a youthful energetic charismatic candidate and he won a tied cruz beto district by 9 points. Depending on the candidate I think the Republican might do better than Marchant .