My preliminary ratings:
LD-1: Lean D
LD-2: Likely D
LD-3: Likely D
LD-8: Lean R
LD-21: Tilt R
LD-25: Likely R
All other districts: Safe [incumbent party]
Anecdotally I would say LD-21 is a toss up currently; compared to the GOP there is serious energy on the Democratic side, and the most politically active residents are wealthy social liberals who deeply hate Trump and the current Republican Party.
Is LD 21 the Romney Menendez District?
Voting history of LD-21:
2012 Pres: Romney +5.8
2012 Sen: Kyrillos +4.8
2013 Sen (special): Lonegan +5.2
2013 Gov: Christie +38.2
2014 Sen: Bell +5.5
2016 Pres: Clinton +9.5
2017 Gov: Murphy +2.0
2018 Sen: Menendez +0.8
I rated this Tilt R primarily due to the assuredly abysmal turnout this off-off-year election will have. I can also foresee a scenario in which Bramnick holds on but Munoz loses if the vote is particularly close.
There was a Kyrillos-Menendez ‘18 seat? LMAO. No wonder Kean is trying to get out of there
Yeah both Senate leaders represent an Obama Trump and Romney Clinton district in NJ.
