Virginia megathread

[Thatkat04]

How the hell did this not come out in 2017? Lol.

Edit: woops

[Thatkat04]

Northam royally botched this. He should have either immediately came out and denied his involvement in the photo or apologized profusely and asked for forgiveness. But his current mealy mouthed response has just made everything worse. 

[Thatkat04]

Grain Mountain of salt, but it appears that Fairfax has been accused of sexually assaulting a woman during the 2004 DNC

https://bigleaguepolitics.com/stanford-fellow-hints-at-possible-justin-fairfax-sex-assault/

Sounds like a hit piece to me.

Apparently this woman went to the Washington Post a year ago and they didnt find her story credible enough to publish. Make of that what you will.

[Thatkat04]

This is definitely a he said, she said situation which is a problem. The only way I see Fairfax going is if more women come out and accuse him.

[Thatkat04]

We have a thread for this.

[Thatkat04]

https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1093187988140580864

I guess those Fairfax 2020 threads will go the way of the Jim Justice 2020 threads now.

I don't know that I've ever seen a state party damage it's "brand" so severely, and at a more critical time than Virginia's Democrats just have.

I'm not sure what's critical about the current time.

[Thatkat04]

And it's confirmed. This is so LOL I have no words:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/va-atty-gen-herring-appears-in-blackface-in-photo-from-college-days/2019/02/06/9aa4aff8-2a26-11e9-984d-9b8fba003e81_story.html?utm_term=.7d70507ec2e0

Had Northam handled it like this and just fessed up and apologized, he might have been able to survive this scandal somewhat unscathed.

[Thatkat04]

It's good he's coming out and apologizing for it. Northam could have survived unscathed had he not bungled his response.

[Thatkat04]

Governor Cox.

I'm pretty sure Northam isn't going anywhere.

[Thatkat04]

Governor Cox.

I'm pretty sure Northam isn't going anywhere.

Even though he is limited to one term hoe can he survive this? Northam has lost all credibility and political prestige in Richmond. He's effectively a political weight on the Democrats while Republican lawmakers want nothing to do with him.

I'm not disagreeing. But Woodbury implied Northan, Fairfax and Herring would all resign but it looks like Northam is planting his feet down and not leaving.

[Thatkat04]

How do the Democrats expect to hold the governorship in two and a bit years?

Two reasons:

Northam cant run for re-election and neither Fairfax or Herring will win the primary.

Virginia's continued shift to becoming a solidly blue state.

On the other hand, if a democrat wins the presidency, democrat enthusiasm will probably be low regardless of the candidate.

[Thatkat04]

There IS a huge difference though. "Mental puberty" ends LONG after physical puberty. The brain's development continues well into the 20s and doesn't complete until around 25.

A 19-year old is still a teenager and mentally hardly any different from teenagers who are still minors. A 25-year old is mentally a fully developed adult.

"mental puberty" isn't a thing.  If it is, it's something that occurs your entire life.

You're talking about brain development.  And you're assuming the photo was taken when Northam was 25.  Could it not have been taken when he was 22 or 23?  This was, after all, his senior yearbook, no?  With your logic, he still wouldn't be a fully developed adult when the photo was taken!

And that begs the question:  Where is the line?  What year between 19 and 25 does it become unforgivable to wear blackface?  Is it 21?  22?  24?  Does it depend on the person?  Where the person grew up?  The cultural norms he grew up in?

Where is the line?  We know these things are on a continuum but the law requires a line.  Where is it?

Very simple. Within the last 2 weeks here in 2019, one of the individuals in all likelihood lied about it, and the other openly admitted it and apologized.

He either lied about it after an apology resulted in every single member of his national party calling on him to resign immediately or he actually didn't lie about it. Those are the two options.

True. Though I think things hid crescendo much more when he switched his story to claim it was never him. I honestly think if he had stuck to his apology and emphasizing how much he had completely changed in the intervening 35 years, it probably would have blown over.

Absolutely.

While its not the best comparison, Robert Byrd was in the KKK during his 20s. He fessed up, said it was a mistake and apologized. Voters will forgive a repentant racist if they are honest. Why I think Herring will survive this scandal.   

[Thatkat04]

I read the account. I've also seen Fairfax's reaction. The last day or so has put me squarely in the "Fairfax should go" camp.

[Thatkat04]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1093275560850194437

There is never just one.

[Thatkat04]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1093326454711091203

Oh god

"Oh god" what? What was he supposed to do with this information?

Edit: It should always be the victims decision to go public.

[Thatkat04]

The only resolution at this point.

- Fairfax resigns and Northam replaces him with a female POC.

- Northam resigns a month later and the new Lt Gov assumes power.

- New Lt. Gov is picked who should be another female POC and there would be a special election in '19.

- Herring should stay put since if he resigned the GOP would pick his replacement, but his political
  career is over.

I guarantee this will set the Democartic Party back 20 years in VA.

This is akin to when MN Gov Wendell Anderson appointed himself to Mondale's Senate seat in MN.  It ended up in a GOP sweep in Democratic MN; two (2) Senators and a Governor lost.

I dont think it'll be that bad. The elections coming up this year might be better for republicans than had this scandal not happened, but Virginia is still trending strongly towards the democrats and Trump is still president. Warner is up again in 2020 and with Trump at the top of the ticket, he should be pretty safe. The governors race in 2021 will be interesting though, but a fresh democrat will certainly help.