Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017 (user search)
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Author Topic: Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017  (Read 15969 times)
StateBoiler
fe234
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« on: June 25, 2016, 08:03:34 PM »
« edited: June 25, 2016, 08:34:00 PM by StateBoiler »

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36632539# - Hilary Benn sacked by Jeremy Corbyn from the Shadow Cabinet amid reports he was orchestrating opposition to Corbyn for the no confidence vote Monday.

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Also:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/25/hilary-benn-jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership-eu-referendum-brexit

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StateBoiler
fe234
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« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2016, 09:16:12 AM »
« Edited: June 26, 2016, 09:21:29 AM by StateBoiler »

Provided they have reasonably competent leadership, I can't see how the Tories don't ride this result a very strong Majority Government. The Conservative Party has already proven that it can get a majority from just England and Wales. As someone that mostly supports Labour, I don't see much cause for optimism. With Scotland gone to the SNP, it's hard to see how Labour can even win a hung Parliament. To put it in American terms, it's almost like having California voting solely for an independence party. (In 2012, without California, Romney would have won with Florida and just 7 other electoral votes while still losing the nationwide popular vote by about 2 million votes.)

There's no way that ordinary swing-voter people don't punish the Tories for not having a coherent plan after Brexit. I base that off them only having a 10-seat majority.

Who else are they going to vote for? Labour are clearly out of touch with their base looking at how northern England voted and the party is in the middle of a political coup. The Liberal Democrats are in the wilderness. The only other party that gets a significant share of the vote is UKIP. The SNP would sweep Scotland again.

The only thing I can state with any confidence if an election was held now is the Liberal Democrats' share of the vote would go up from little to small, and UKIP would likely take some voters from both the Conservatives and Labour. The Conservatives and Labour are both right now divided into Leave and Remain camps and that is the single most overarching issue in British politics, moreso than right-wing versus left-wing. Both the two main parties have no clarity on the issue from member to member, and UKIP's clarity so you know what they stand for will aid them (as it would also to the SNP, Liberal Democrats, and Greens). In Labour's case, their leader is Leave in disagreement with what was his Shadow Cabinet before they all resigned. In the Conservatives' case, their leader is Remain and he just quit.
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StateBoiler
fe234
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« Reply #2 on: June 26, 2016, 10:02:53 AM »

You should never, ever trust reports of 'internal polling' particularly when it is not clearly exactly what sort of survey it supposedly was but...

It shows that just 71% of those who voted for Ed Miliband’s Labour party in May last year say they would vote Labour now, and this drops further – to 67% – among working and lower middle-class C2DE voters.

That is not actually a statistically significant difference, particularly given the issues that exist with poll internals.

Write the Guardian and complain to them about their shoddy journalism then. They published it.
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