The Megathread for All Things Hoosier!

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Front page article from Howey today on Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch and her 2024 aspirations. For a "this is just about everyone that could consider running", here's his list:

Suzanne Crouch would head up the earliest Howey Politics Indiana  Horse Race status as a leading contender, just about every Republican we’ve talked with expects an extensive field. At this nascent point, Crouch clearing the field as Mitch Daniels did in 2003 with quick exits by David McIntosh and Murray Clark (leaving just Eric Miller) isn’t likely to happen.
   
The potential 2024 field will likely find feelers from Attorney General-elect Todd Rokita, Republican Chairman Kyle Hupfer, U.S. Reps. Trey Hollingsworth and Jim Banks, Fishers Mayor Scott Fadness, former state senator Jim Merritt, Health & Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, Senate President Pro Tem Rod Bray, and, perhaps, even disgraced Attorney General Curtis Hill. If either U.S. Sen. Todd Young or Mike Braun decides to seek the office, the former could clear the field, the latter could self-fund as he did in the 2018 U.S. Senate primary. Hollingsworth is one of the richest members in Congress and could also self-fund.

Looks like the GOP will have a contested gubernatorial primary for the first time since 2004. I get the check mark bit of Crouch being a woman candidate for the GOP, but at the same time she's going to be Holcomb's legacy and who knows how that will look in 3 years' time when Republican voters never had a chance to vote against Holcomb in an internal party field. Either she is running or Hupfer is, not both. (Hupfer strikes me as a guy that would run for Senator or National Committeeman.) But I think for Crouch whose name ID is really not there she could easily be State Treasurer Kelly Mitchell who ran in a very large field 5th district primary and quite frankly got embarassed for a person that was elected statewide.

Abdul's Cheat Sheet centers on Crouch and Jim Banks. Also mentions Curtis Hill, Rokita, and Hupfer. (I can't see Crouch and Hupfer both running, and I can't see Hill and Banks both running.)

If Hogsett leaves for the Biden administration (three of his staff may be leaving soon to join), City-Council President Vop Osili likely to run for the vacancy to be Mayor of Indianapolis. Whoever it will be will have the better part of 3 years before having to face the voters.

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https://www.indystar.com/story/opinion/2020/11/19/op-ed-indiana-democrats-and-libertarians-outside-looking/3762889001/

Pete Seat post-election op-ed in the Indy Star discussing if the Libertarians can build before the Democrats can rebuild. The Libertarians want to be a major party but that also comes with a lot of work alongside it down at the local level where they presently have nothing (from my own experiences I can tell you there's about 20 counties in the state where presently there is no Libertarian chapter at some stage of organizing, with a lot of these becoming official February/March in the new year) and the Democrats need to rebuild, with potential state party chair Karlee Macer saying her plan would take 10 years.

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State politics journalist Abdul Hakim-Shabazz on Rob Kendall's Statehouse Happenings podcast at WIBC says either they'll have to do a special session later this year or will wait until the 2022 session to redraw districts due to the delay from the Census Bureau publishing numbers.

GOP delegation votes on the Electoral College certification:

Aye: Sen. Young, Sen. Braun, Spartz, Rep. Pence, Bucshon, Hollingsworth
Nay: Walorski, Banks, Baird

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Listening to last weekend's Statehouse Happenings podcast, there's 2 people vying for state party Democratic chair. State Sen. Karlee Macer who has stated she was running in the past but also Trish Whitcomb, daughter of former Gov. Whitcomb. Macer appears to have the backing of the labor wing and Whitcomb has the backing of the progressive wing. There's an issue with vice chair and who that will be because I guess Democrats require the top 2 to have a person of color. When you throw in the male/female thing that the Democrats and Republicans have for chair/vice chair, 2 white women running means you need a black/Hispanic/Asian (but really black) man to be vice chair. It was going to be Eddie Melton, but he has issues which rule him out. So there's an open question on who this will be.

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State Rep. Ethan Manning, who represents a district centered around Peru and Logansport, has introduced a bill to place the same requirements for every statewide candidate nominated by party convention instead of by primary to make the November general election ballot that the 2 main parties have for their candidates to make their primary ballot - 4500 signatures with 500 from each congressional district. The only state-recognized party that nominates by convention are the Libertarians. As Richard Winger states at Ballot Access News, this is nonsensical to have the Republicans' and Democrats' requirements to make their primary ballot apply to other parties to get on the general election ballot.

(State law is setup such that parties that garner more than 10% in the most recent Secretary of State race get access to a state primary, and parties that get between 2 and 10% in the most recent Secretary of State race do not have access to the state primary, but can nominate by Convention. Parties that receive less than 2% do not get automatic ballot access for the next 4 years.)

I'm officially a county party chair.

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State Rep. Ethan Manning, who represents a district centered around Peru, has introduced a bill to place the same requirements for every statewide candidate nominated by party convention instead of by primary to make the November general election ballot that the 2 main parties have for their candidates to make their primary ballot - 4500 signatures with 500 from each congressional district. The only state-recognized party that nominates by convention are the Libertarians. As Richard Winger states at Ballot Access News, this is nonsensical.

(State law is setup such that parties that garner more than 10% in the most recent Secretary of State race get access to a state primary, and parties that get between 2 and 10% in the most recent Secretary of State race do not have access to the state primary, but can nominate by Convention. Parties that receive less than 2% do not get automatic ballot access for the next 4 years.)

I'm officially a county party chair.

That's really crummy. I assume they're proposing this because Rainwater did so well?

Yes.

Measure passed in Committee. Still needs to pass through both houses and get Holcomb's signature. If the Republicans are gung-ho consolidated about doing this, it'll pass. Question I feel though of priority considering everything else going on.

edit: I just watched the committee video. This measure applies for only statewide races with primaries - so Governor and Senator, but not President (because the Republican and Democratic nominees for president are appointed by Convention). It doesn't affect the state constitutional offices. It does not apply to minor parties or independents, they still have to get signatures equivalent to 2% of the past Secretary of State election vote.

The ranking Democratic member, Pierce of Bloomington, opened committee comments saying a person could be cynical and say this was due to the performance of the Libertarian Party in November. Manning responded "don't be so cynical". A member of the Indiana Green Party showed up and testified, him and one of the Democratic committee members threw it in the direction of "spoiler effect" and speaking in favor of ranked choice voting.

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Indiana Democratic Party leadership race has changed. Karlee Macer is out as of Wednesday morning. The aforementioned Trish Whitcomb is in, as is former Buttigieg campaign manager Mike Schmuhl.

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The terrible ballot access bill has stalled. It's not clear if this has been dropped or just they're trying to find a workaround first. Bill has gotten some public coverage. Rob Kendall has covered it a lot on his WIBC show and Abdul Hakim-Shabazz interviewed the sponsor Manning about it.

Posted on February 2, 2021 by Richard Winger

The Indiana House Elections & Apportionment Committee passed HB 1134 on a party-line vote on January 26. It imposes a petition requirement on the nominees of ballot-qualified parties that nominate by convention. If the bill passed, their statewide nominees for Governor and U.S. Senator would need 4,500 signatures, with 500 signatures from each U.S. House district, even though they were nominated by a ballot-qualified party. The only ballot-qualified party in Indiana that nominates by convention is the Libertarian Party.

However, Representative Curt Nisly (R-Milford) then proposed an amendment to the bill, providing that ballot-qualified parties that nominate by convention should be represented on the State Election Board, and all county election boards. Currently only parties that qualify for a primary have members on the election boards. This amendment exposes the hypocrisy of the bill’s sponsors, who claim they are only proposing petition requirements for convention nominees because they want all parties to be treated alike. The bill’s sponsors do not favor having Libertarians on the election boards, so they have not yet advanced their bill to the House floor.

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Connie Lawson announced yesterday she will step down as Secretary of State once Gov. Holcomb announces her successor.

She was a Mitch Daniels appointment back in March 2012 when Charlie White resigned. She would've been term-limited in 2022, but if she stays in office until April she'd be the longest-serving Secretary of State ever. The longest-serving Secretary of State was the very first one, Robert New, who served from November 1816 to December 1825.

The one Republican that had so far put his name out for running for the position in 2022 was Diego Morales. He finished 3rd in the open primary in 2018 for the 4th Congress seat that Jim Baird wound up winning, and had served in the Secretary of State office as Director of Intergovernmental Relations.


Also, Hupfer has been named General Counsel for the national Republican Party.

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Importantville's list of possible successors to Lawson:

State Rep. Holli Sullivan of the Evansville area
Brandon Clifton, Lawson's current Chief of Staff and Deputy Secretary of State
Blair Milo, former Mayor of LaPorte, former Naval officer, the "Secretary for Career Connections and Talent", woman
Danny Lopez, Vice President of the Pacers, Cuban-American

Also lists Pete Seat of Bose Public Affairs Group and Morales.

If it's Sullivan, I imagine Holcomb waits until the Assembly goes sine die. But I do think he's going to go woman, which means Sullivan or Milo.

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Next Senator from Indiana is Nick Fuentes. Calling it now.

The party establishment post-Mourdock have pretty effectively killed all insurgent right types from getting on the statewide ballot, which has meant they've won every statewide election since 2012. Throw on top of it I think some Democratic-leaning voters have given up the ghost and make their voice heard in the Republican primary.

Yet to see any sign of anyone challenging Young in the Republican primary in 2022. Braun might be a single-termer, I feel Young's been a better Senator than Braun, but Braun's not up until the next presidential election.

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Listening to this past weekend's Statehouse Happenings, seems like Sullivan is the shoe-in for Secretary of State due to being a buddy of Suzanne Crouch's as well as bringing geographical diversity in the state executive being from Evansville.

Morales is a Pence acolyte, and neither of the 2 hosts though it likely he'd be picked for the appointment, although he's planning on running in 2022.

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Todd Young has announced he is running for reelection in 2022.

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County party leadership elections this past Saturday:

https://indypolitics.org/marion-county-gop-chooses-elsner-as-chairman/

https://howeypolitics.com/Content/Default/Lead-Story/Article/Elsener-wins-Marion-County-GOP-chair-Wruble-easily-staves-off-challenge-in-St-Joe-County-Shine-gets-8th-term-in-Allen/-3/346/26802

The new Marion County chair Joe Elsener is a Holcomb/Hupfer protege and won easily, getting 75% of the vote in a 3-way race.

Skimming results, St. Joseph County (South Bend, Mishawaka, and surrounding environs) Democrats went against the former Chair's endorsement in electing a Chair. Apparently, Democrats lost 2 of the 3 County Commissioner seats in the November election.

My former county of Allen (Fort Wayne and surrounding environs) the Republicans elected Steve Shine to an 8th term. I think a lot of Shine as far as being a political organizer. The person that served as county party chair before him, Orvas Beers, served for 32 years in the position. So from 1961 to 2024 if Shine serves the full term, the Allen County Republican Party will have 2 chairs. In contrast, the Allen County Democrats are probably on their 8th or so since 2000.

My current county of Whitley, I heard from a source there that the Republicans had to do a revote when it was determined one lady voting was not eligible to vote.

As far as determining state party leadership, this is the 1st step:

Saturday's party election quadrennial reorganizations will be followed up by the election of congressional district chairs on March 13, then by the state chair elections on March 20. Indiana Republican Chairman Kyle Hupfer is seeking a second term, Saturday's party election quadrennial reorganizations will be followed up by the election of congressional district chairs on March 13, then by the state chair elections on March 20. Indiana Republican Chairman Kyle Hupfer is seeking a second term, while Democrats Trish Whitcomb and Mike Schmuhl are seeking to replace the retiring John Zody. The party has not won a statewide election since 2012 and is at a historic low ebb, with Republicans controlling all five statewide constitutional offices, 71 mayoral seats, nine of 11 congressional seats while maintaining super majorities in the General Assembly and close to 90% of all county offices.

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Howey on Todd Young seeking a 2nd term in the Senate. Joe Donnelly quickly announced he would not challenge.

With Donnelly not running, it’s unclear whether there is a credible Democratic challenger in the wings. For Hoosier Democrats, the bench is wafer thin. Currently, Haneefah Khaaliq, a political unknown who is executive director of the Gary Human Relations Commission, is the only Democrat seeking the nomination.

The party’s mayoral, congressional and General Assembly benches yield no obvious challengers. U.S. Reps. Andre Carson and Frank Mrvan have not expressed any interest in running statewide. Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett hasn't won any of the statewide races he's run for the U.S. Senate and Attorney General. And the state’s most conspicuous Democratic rising star, U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, is on a presidential track with no interest in serving in Congress.

Young may be facing what Sen. Lugar did in his 2006 reelection, which is a Libertarian opponent.

https://howeypolitics.com/Content/HPI-News/-HPI-News/Article/Atomic-Fight-over-Gov-s-power-Biden-s-empathy-truth-7B-in-relief-for-Hoosiers-IN-40th-in-life-expectancy/39/123/26850

The fight over gubernatorial power

Heavy hitters of the Holcomb administration - Health Commissioner Kristina Box, National Guard Adjutant General Dale Lyles, Homeland Security Director Steve Cox, FSSA Commissioner Jennifer Sullivan, Local Government Finance Director Wes Bennett, and Public Access Counselor Luke Britt appeared before the Senate Rules Committee Thursday to push back on General Assembly efforts to pare back gubernatorial power during emergencies. Box defended Gov. Eric Holcomb's emergency orders which allowed her department to “quickly and directly” work with hospitals as the pandemic began unfolding a year ago. “Our ability to respond efficiently and effectively to this once-in-a-lifetime emergency has been tied to the governor’s executive orders,” Box said. “This was especially crucial in those first several months when we had to deal with issues as they arose and address them immediately.”

State Sen. Sue Glick: “I find it interesting that so many members of the administration find it threatening that legislators want a seat at the table. We are part of the Constitution, we are a branch of this government. For a year now, we’ve been very patient. But we’ve been simply ignored on many occasions. We have attempted to deal with the governor’s office ... and state government, and we have repeatedly, like our constituents, been stymied.” House Majority Leader Matt Lehman (the House bill author) on Holcomb's constitutional concerns: "The constitution will take care of itself." Senate President Pro Tem Rod Bray: “There’s a difference of opinion on that constitutionality, frankly, and that may not be something that is able to be resolved. But we’re going to try and do something and obviously if we do, we are going to vet it and make sure that it feels constitutional to us.”

Lehman's point is interesting, in that a number of laws have passed into law, only to be found unconstitutional via the courts. Also worth noting: During the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-19, Gov. James P. Goodrich was hardly involved at all. Masking and public meeting mandates were made by local health officials. The emergency laws Gov. Holcomb used were initially forged following the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks and updated in 2010.

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Hot off the press:

https://indypolitics.org/whitcomb-withdraws-from-race-for-state-democratic-chair/

Trish Whitcomb is withdrawing from the race for State Democratic Chair.

Whitcomb is quitting the race due to the unexpected loss of her son.  She released the following statement today.

“It is with deep sorrow that I announce I am withdrawing my candidacy for State Democratic Party Chair. I experienced an unimaginable loss on Sunday when my son died unexpectedly. As any parent can imagine, there is no way I can continue my candidacy to become the next leader of the State Democratic Party, she stated.”  “I will continue to work with the party in the future to ensure we have strong candidates and campaigns in any capacity that I can.  I appreciate the opportunity to run and wish the next Chair all the best.”

Also withdrawing is Vice-Chair candidate Luke Bohm.

Whitcomb’s departure leaves Mike Schmuhl, the former campaign manager for Pete for America, and Democrat Tom Wallace who ran against State Senator Rod Bray last cycle in the race, as the only candidates in the race.

Whitcomb is the daughter of former Indiana Governor Edgar Whitcomb, who served as the state’s leader from 1969-1973.

She is also the former Executive Director of the Indiana Retired Teachers Association and was the former President of the Indiana Federation of Democratic Women.

Schmuhl should win in a snoozer now. I'd not heard of Wallace running until this article. Whitcomb was running in the progressive lane.

Interview with Senate President Pro Tem Rod Bray on bill going through the legislature giving the legislature the ability to call a special session (right now only the Governor has that ability). The Governor's office opposes of course. https://indypolitics.org/statehouse-week-10-in-review-2/

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Sullivan appointed by Holcomb to be the new Secretary of State. Position up for election in November 2022, and the Republican choice to run in November decided at Convention in June or so next year.

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Howey:

Schmuhl elected chair of INDems

“It’s an honor to have the full support of our Indiana Democratic Party’s diverse leadership as we work together on creating a brighter and better future for Indiana and its families. Democrats across our state are ready for a fresh vision supported by strategic planning, long-term investment, grassroots organizing, and a clear message that offers all Hoosiers a better life, regardless of where they live. I’m ready to get to work and I look forward to helping elect great Democrats up and down the ballot as we chart a new course.” - Newly elected Indiana Democratic Chairman Mike Schmuhl on Saturday. Marion County Clerk Myla Eldridge was elected vice chair, Rick Sutton secretary and Henry Fernandez as treasurer. Eldridge said, “I look forward to helping Mike execute our platform so that we can benefit the daily lives of Indiana residents and get more people involved in the democratic process. It’s time to get to work, and I ask all Hoosiers to join us in this effort.” A native of South Bend, Schmuhl has worked on campaigns for former U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly (2010), State Sen. Shelli Yoder (2016), and businessman Mel Hall (2018). He served as Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s first chief of staff after running his campaign for mayor in 2011. Schmuhl was the elected the 2nd Congressional District Democratic chairman from 2011 to 2013, becoming the youngest member of the state central committee at the time with full voting rights. He managed Buttigieg's $100 million Democratic presidential campaign in 2019-20.

Hakim-Shabazz:

https://indypolitics.org/holcomb-lifts-mask-mandate/

Indiana Governor Eric Holcomb has announced new steps going forward dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, including making the mask mandate advisory.

In an address, Tuesday night, one year after the Governor announced the state was having to hunker down in order to prevent the spread of COVID-19, Holcomb announced he was easing state restrictions.

While the state public health emergency will stay in place for an additional 30 days allowing the state to respond to emergencies and access federal funds, the mask mandate is becoming advisory on April 6 and venue capacity will be in the hands of local officials.

In addition, the Governor is expanding vaccination clinics.

You can hear the Governor at the link above. It runs for about 23 minutes.

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Hupfer unanimously reelected for another term as Indiana Republican Party Chair. The vice chair is the newly appointed Secretary of State Holli Sullivan.

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Your first rumored Democratic candidate for Governor 2024: Jennifer McCormick, who was elected as a Republican as Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2016. I expect that wouldn't be a winner come primary time unless like 2020 every single halfway respectable Democrat punts on the job.

Meanwhile, there's been about a dozen or so rumored Republicans. Whatever happens for the GOP, I fully expect a contested primary in 3 years.

Holcomb predictably vetoed the legislation that the General Assembly passed giving them the power to call a special session on the grounds of it is unconstitutional. I'm not sure why the General Assembly did not go the constitutional amendment route, although maybe they didn't have the votes. This veto was 3 or 4 days ago and the General Assembly has said and done nothing about it. There's a thought that they just would not adjourn sine die and leave themselves in session.

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Both houses override Holcomb's veto on the legislature calling a special session with no one changing their vote although less people did vote. Lawsuits incoming, will probably be decided by the State Supreme Court.

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Holcomb has vetoed a second bill that was not very partisan but was controversial and split Indiana's agricultural groups in two about the marking of E15 fuel on gas pumps.

Holli Sullivan unshockingly has announced she will run for Secretary of State in 2022. However, she then started asking for campaign donations, and due to the legislature not going sine die because they have to do congressional districts later in the year, you're not allowed to do fundraising while still in session, which per the deal worked out to the constitutionally-mandated end of legislature date in budget years of April 29th. So Sullivan asked for donations a week or two before she was allowed to. The Libertarian Party of Indiana called out Sullivan for it and asked the Secretary of State's office (which includes Indiana Election Division) from recusing itself from the investigation of Sullivan's violation of state law. Diego Morales - a Pence administration official - is already running, and there may be one more serious candidate.

Todd Rokita has come out against Holcomb filing suit in the "is it constitutional for the legislature to call a special session?" Rokita says that is a determination of the Attorney General, not the Governor, to allow the state to have a single mind in lawsuits, citing established case law. The Governor's office of course dismisses this interpretation of law, and the Governor is being represented in the case by private counsel, not Rokita. Rokita has designs on running for Governor in 2024 and so there's a case to be made this is a political move. I don't think the legislature's law has much chance of standing up in state Supreme Court, I think they should have the right to call a special session, but the way to go about that would've been constitutional amendment. However, I'm not sure the Governor can even file suit if he's being represented by private counsel, because he's then not filing suit in his office as chief of the executive branch, he's filing as a private citizen. I think Rokita's play here causes Holcomb technical problems.

Todd Young will have a primary challenger per Abdul Hakim-Shabazz as we're about to pass less than 1 year from next year's primary.

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Former president of the Indiana Economic Development Corp. And CEO of Greater Fort Wayne, and current partner in a Venture Capital firm Eric Doden announced he was running for Governor.
https://www.journalgazette.net/news/local/20210507/doden-to-enter-race-for-governor

As a recently former Fort Wayne resident, I do not expect him to win the primary at all. Can't win a mayoral primary in a place you have a lot of power or when you're not in the race kick out the mayor you don't like, you're not going to win a governor primary.

In other Fort Wayne news, Mayor Tom Henry (D) has made news he might run for a fifth term in 2023, but the first person to announce he is running for the job is current City Councilman Tom Didier (R). Didier defeated Henry for his City Council position back in 2003, and Henry 4 years later ran for Mayor and won.

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The Republican Convention next summer looks like it could be fun.

Announced Secretary of State candidates:

-Holli Sullivan (appointed a few months ago to fulfill the rest of the term, Holcomb/establishment choice, embarassed by soliciting campaign donations when it was technically illegal for her to do so because the legislature was still in session)
-Diego Morales (Pence-era administration official in state government, ran in the clown car primary for the 5th Congress district in 2020)
-Wayne "Gunny" Harmon (don't know who this is)

I think there's one more name been thrown out there, a county commissioner, maybe from the Region.

Announced Treasurer candidates:

Dan Elliott (former Morgan County councilman, Morgan County GOP Party Chairman, Morgan is the donut county to Indianapolis's southwest)
Pete Seat (former Deputy Assistant Press Secretary for President George W. Bush, also worked for the Indiana Republican Party as executive director of "strategic communications and talent development", has worked for Holcomb and Dan Coats in the past...only 38 years old)

Auditor: Tera Klutz is eligible to run for another term. All indications are is no one will run against her.

Whether Todd Young gets a challenger that can get 500 Republican signatures in each of the 9 congressional districts is an open question.

Link to a podcast discussing these 2 races (and other matters): https://www.wibc.com/blogs/rob-kendall/republican-infighting-begins/

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Former Hammond Mayor McDermott has announced he's interested in running against Todd Young for Senate. McDermott last year lost the Democratic primary for the 1st district narrowly to Frank Mrvan.