US House Redistricting: North Carolina

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Where does Shuler live? Is it possible to throw him into a 57% McCain district with an R incumbent?

Haywood County.

Also, Shuler grew up in the district, so he may be able to withstand more GOPers in his district.

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Also, Shuler and McIntyre aren't nearly as conservative as the legislators in the Deep South who switched parties (North Carolina is not politically similar to that, thank God). The GOP may still try keeping them from having a safe district or moving left. Also, keep in mind that Shuler grew up in NC-11 and was a high school football star there.

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Wow, this is even worse than I thought, both in terms of partisanship and aesthetics. NC-4 could still easily have been a vote sink while staying in the Triangle.

krazen, where are you getting the Dole/Hagan/Perdue/McCrory numbers for the current map--some look surprising.

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Wow, this is even worse than I thought, both in terms of partisanship and aesthetics. NC-4 could still easily have been a vote sink while staying in the Triangle.

krazen, where are you getting the Dole/Hagan/Perdue/McCrory numbers for the current map--some look surprising.

The legislature website has election numbers posted for each district under "District Stats"

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho-Lewis_Congress_1&Body=Congress

Those are for the new districts. I was referring to the 2002-2010 CD's that krazen had posted beside the new CD's.

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It continues into there (though the percentage declines), so the three counties belong together. I'd consider it stomachable if they'd just split them from Robeson rather than splitting Robeson itself, though.

(As to the rest of the map, I'd echo Al's sentiments of "what comes around goes around".  As long as no idiot tries to pretend this isn't a bad gerrymander, I cannot even manage fake outrage. But Indian issues tend to be close to my heart, and splitting Indian communities is quite rightly something that used to be "not done" in redistricting.)

The Democrats did this to themselves when they removed the governor's veto power because they were afraid of having a Republican governor veto their plan.

What year? The governor of NC didn't use to have veto power over anything until the 1990s. I thought it was a holdover from that.

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This proves how white liberals were really distributed throughout the non-liberal districts, since NC-7 is quite socially conservative.

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I've heard that the new map might not even go into effect until 2014 because of the lawsuits.

Some of the litigated maps in the 1990's remained in a effect for few elections. Though you would have to see details to see if the lawsuits actually took that long or whether they started them after the elections had occured. If they took that long, there would be precedent for leaving the litigated map in place till the case is decided. The Texas Delay map was in place for 2004 elections, though I don't know when the lawsuit that forced changes in the 23rd started.

If Miles is correct, would a (non-partisan) court-drawn map take place in 2012?

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I'm not sure the new map is worse for NC Dems than the old one. Miller would have a greater chance in NC-13 than in the old map, but would still be an underdog.

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In the NC Senate, just seeing which non-black seats were drawn to go for Obama:

13   Robeson   Columbus
   52.4% Obama-46.7% McCain   
   41.9% white, 27.4% Native American, 26.4% black   
16   Wake (Raleigh)
   63.2% Obama-35.6% McCain   
   70.6% white, 15.0% black   
19   Cumberland (Fayetteville)   
   49.7% Obama-49.6% McCain   
   68.5% white, 22.5% black   
22   Durham (county and city), Person, and Caswell
   62.1% Obama-36.9% McCain   
   61.7% white, 36.9% black   
23   Orange (Chapel Hill)    Chatham
   66.5% Obama-32.4% McCain   
   77.0% white, 12.8% black   
32   Forsyth (Winston-Salem)
   69.3% Obama-29.8% McCain   
   45.3% white, 42.5% black   
37   Mecklenburg (Charlotte)
   66.3% Obama-32.8% McCain   
   58.5% white, 26.3% black   
49   Buncombe (Asheville)
   58.4% Obama-40.3% McCain   
   88.8% white, 6.8% black   

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I'd actually thought of Kissell carpet-bagging to the 13th, which is less GOP than the 2nd, and no incumbent, but that probably won't work since Paul Coble (former mayor of Raleigh, Wake Co. commissioner, and nephew by marriage to Jesse Helms) will probably run there.

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In case anyone was wondering, here's how the NC maps discriminate against women.

I just got back from a talk where this was raised (not that specific video, but the general point). I know they targeted as many white Democrats as they could, but it is clear that they were more aggressive towards Democratic women.

On the bright side, a speaker indicated that we will likely have non-partisan redistricting in 2020.

Lol! That surely explains the safe seats for Foxx, Myrick, and Ellmers, right? Incidentally they went after 4 males.

We're referring to the state legislature. The only reason that didn't go after any Democratic Congresswomen here, is that there weren't any.