LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Flyersfan232]

Quite important that the vote was 51.8 R - 47.4 D. It's a bit disappointing for Edwards, but nothing too out of line with what polls showed.

Realistically, Landrieu should probably be put in with the D vote for obvious reasons.

No, Landrieu is a rightwinger who used the nygger word.

He’s not from the Democratic Landrieus in LA ...

And you think the people who voted for him know that? They probably just voted based off the last name.

He did that ballotpedia thing.

[Flyersfan232]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1183253093712125954

ironic considering he could very well lose his job next month the two round voting can be interesting

[Flyersfan232]

Lol John Milkovich lost and he’s probably the most conservative legislator in the country. So much for “Dems need to stop stressing social issues and they can win”

ANY Demicrat would lose there. Simply because "D" letter is almost as toxic there as "R" - in San Francisco.

This guy went on the Alex Jones show.

[Flyersfan232]

Unfortunately, pretty sure my signature is gonna be proven right.

See the thing about run-offs is that if you don't get a majority the first time, you're in a much tougher position because most of the people who voted for the other guy in the same party are probably gonna stick with that party's nominee in the run-off. Most of the polls suggested this would happen, so I was already predicting a narrow Edwards defeat in the run-off, maybe 51-49 or 52-48 or something along those lines, and this has definitely not changed that. I really don't know why people think enough Abraham voters are gonna flip to Edwards to give him a majority in the run-off. I suppose it COULD happen, and I hope it does, but given the laser focus the GOP will have on targeting Edwards now for the next month, I have my doubts.

On the other hand, in Kentucky Beshear doesn't need to win a majority -- he just has to get a plurality over Bevin. The way the Libertarian candidate is polling right now at about 5 or 6% could well be enough to give Beshear the edge given Bevin's immense unpopularity. So far his ties to Trump have not appeared to give him much of a boost -- he barely scraped by in the GOP primary against no-name contenders who barely ran campaigns despite Trump's endorsement.

By the way 2015 was a unique situation for the Louisiana governor's race that doesn't really apply here. But on the other hand you could actually argue Bevin's win in Kentucky in 2015 was also unique due to a very weak Democratic candidate, a very poor turnout year for most Democrats (yet Andy Beshear still won the AG race), and a rare GOP victory for the KY governor's mansion after eight years of Beshear Sr. The situation isn't the same in Louisiana, and despite the incumbency of both Edwards (who is relatively popular for a Democrat in a deep red state) and Bevin (who is horrifically unpopular for a Republican in a deep red state), I ultimately think both will lose.

bare in Mind the libertarian party candidate was polling that in Georgia too in 2018 and barely got 1% on election day

[Flyersfan232]

Interesting results ...

Looks like the Democratic vote will end up at 48% after all the missing precincts are in.

That’s up from 42% in 2015, when he ended up winning the runoff with 56%.

JBE needs to convince ca. 4-6% of those who voted R today to vote for him in the runoff.

That don’t mean anything since there no Vitter

[Flyersfan232]

Edwards probably ends the night at 47%. I don't think he can be totally counted out, but clearly the "Democrats would win if they were only more 'moderate'" talking point took another big hit tonight. I'd like to see some Edwards/Rispone polls, so I'll leave this as a Toss-Up for now, but this night definitely didn't go the way Edwards planned.

Of course - moderate Democrats can lose in conservative Louisiana. But that doesn't mean that "bold progressive" would have done better. On the contrary: most of Democratic candidates in downballot statewide races were more liberal, then JBE. Which percentage they got? Together - between 32 and 35% in all races (numbers very similar to Black percentage in the state, meaning that voting was, probably, very polarized by race, except governor race). Democrats absolutely cratered in Acadiana and around it (even conservative-leaning candidates were beaten badly), but former conservative Democrat, running for state House this time as Republican, beat an opponent, whom he lost as Democrat, rather decisively (letter after name was different). With rare exceptions (university cities) - all non-metropolian majority white southern areas became a "scorched Earth" zone for Democratic candidates. Any candidates: socially extremely conservative Milkovich lost to Republican too. Suburbs - another matter, but in Louisiana they are still relatively conservative and not that big (and, usually,  can't outvote almost 90% Republican rural areas).

Republicans gained considerably in state legislature, Only 2 white Democratic state Senators remain (Luneau and Smith, who was unopposed), the same tendency - in House. "Black party" and "White party" essentially..

I'm not saying that a progressive Democrat would have won, simply that it really doesn't make much difference in very red states, and that being "moderate" is not a silver bullet.

progressives would have lost to David Vitter