Democrats Senate Odds post 2020

[Frenchrepublican]

2030 or beyond.

2020 : Dems win CO + AZ but lose AL = 48 D seats
2022 (a democratic midterm) : Dems lose AZ + NH = 46 D seats
2024 : Dems lose OH + MT + WV = 43 D seats

If 2026 is a democratic midterm : Dems could lose MI/NH/MN = 40 to 43 D seats
If 2026 is a republican midterm : Dems could win NC/ME/GA = 43 to 46 D seats


Very difficult to see how democrats rebound before 2030. The main problem for them is that if they have the White House in 2022 they won't be able to benefit from a favourable map because the climate will likely be against them. In 2024 democrats will have a second problem as they will have to defend three very vulnerable seats.

[Frenchrepublican]

2020 will be close. I expect 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Senate.

..

Biden as the nominee can make upsets in AL, MS-B and TX happen.  I am not giving up on Senate until December

Lol. Stop with your trolling. AL AND MS WON'T HAVE A DEMOCRATIC SENATOR AFTER 2021. AND NO, BIDEN IS NOT WINNING AL NOR MS

[Frenchrepublican]

My 2022 Senate rating:

1) If Trump wins in 2020

2) If Trump loses in 2020

AR/IN/MO/KY won't be competitive even if 2022 is as much horrible than 2018

[Frenchrepublican]

My 2022 Senate rating:

1) If Trump wins in 2020

2) If Trump loses in 2020

AR/IN/MO/KY won't be competitive even if 2022 is as much horrible than 2018

Actually MO coukd, because Roy Blunt is terrible at campaigning, but he won't actually lose

Democrats have no bench in the state. Kander doesn’t seem interested by a new campaign. Anyway political polarisation has only become more stronger since 2016