Internal D Poll Hood+5

[Frenchrepublican]

Hood leads Reeves 45/40. No demographics details available which let me thing that the vast majority of undecided voters are white voters who will vote Reeves in the end.

Not sure if being only +5 in your own internal poll is really a good new for him anyway (especially considering his big cash deficit and the tons of negative ads he will have to face)

I remain where I’m : likely R

Reeves defeats Hood 56/44 in the end

[Frenchrepublican]

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

Yes I’ve heard that 1,000,001 times in this forum already. I think Hood has enough goodwill after serving as AG for 15 years (and comfortably winning each time) to attract enough whites to win this race. As long as black turnout isn’t depressed and he wins about a quarter of the white vote, he wins.

You can't compare a Gov race and an AG race, a Gov race means more spendings, a more high profile election, this time Hood will be seen as a D and will be a far more partisan figure.

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

The Dem ceiling (under absolutely perfect conditions for the Democratic candidate) is more like 55%, and the floor is likewise more like 36-37%, accounting for extreme circumstances.

Reeves =/= Roy Moore

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

Yes I’ve heard that 1,000,001 times in this forum already. I think Hood has enough goodwill after serving as AG for 15 years (and comfortably winning each time) to attract enough whites to win this race. As long as black turnout isn’t depressed and he wins about a quarter of the white vote, he wins.

You can't compare a Gov race and an AG race, a Gov race means more spendings, a more high profile election, this time Hood will be seen as a D and will be a far more partisan figure.

True which is why I don’t think Hood does nearly as well as his AG wins. But thinking that Reeves wins by 13 points against a statewide Dem this year is a little ridiculous. Especially when you take into account Espy lost by half that margin last year

This time I expect Hood will face a lot of negative ads which will hurt his image, in the end he will a generic D and he will likely lose by a healthy margin (maybe not a 12 points margin) but it will be very difficult for him to win more than 46% of the vote

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

Yes I’ve heard that 1,000,001 times in this forum already. I think Hood has enough goodwill after serving as AG for 15 years (and comfortably winning each time) to attract enough whites to win this race. As long as black turnout isn’t depressed and he wins about a quarter of the white vote, he wins.

You can't compare a Gov race and an AG race, a Gov race means more spendings, a more high profile election, this time Hood will be seen as a D and will be a far more partisan figure.

True which is why I don’t think Hood does nearly as well as his AG wins. But thinking that Reeves wins by 13 points against a statewide Dem this year is a little ridiculous. Especially when you take into account Espy lost by half that margin last year

This time I expect Hood will face a lot of negative ads which will hurt his image, in the end he will a generic D and he will likely lose by a healthy margin (maybe not a 12 points margin) but it will be very difficult for him to win more than 46% of the vote

His 2015 opponent was very well funded.

Yes, running as a statewide Dem in MS in 2015 was a nightmare. The Dem nominee for Gov was a freaking truck driver who couldn't even get 1/3rd of the vote. Yet Hood still scored a double digit win. As such, I think Hood is on track to perform much better than a generic Dem in MS would.

You have to keep in mind that in 2015 he was an incumbent in a generally non partisan race, this year it will be a high profile race and he won’t have the incumbency advantage and the benefit of running against someone who is unknown, considering the financial gap we are talking about a six to one financial advantage for Reeves, Hood will get carpetbombed

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean R. I think Hood makes it closer than Espy did last year. Glad that it at least looks like he’s got the primary wrapped up

It’s a very inelastic state

Dem floor : 41%
Dem ceiling : 46%

Yes I’ve heard that 1,000,001 times in this forum already. I think Hood has enough goodwill after serving as AG for 15 years (and comfortably winning each time) to attract enough whites to win this race. As long as black turnout isn’t depressed and he wins about a quarter of the white vote, he wins.

You can't compare a Gov race and an AG race, a Gov race means more spendings, a more high profile election, this time Hood will be seen as a D and will be a far more partisan figure.

True which is why I don’t think Hood does nearly as well as his AG wins. But thinking that Reeves wins by 13 points against a statewide Dem this year is a little ridiculous. Especially when you take into account Espy lost by half that margin last year

This time I expect Hood will face a lot of negative ads which will hurt his image, in the end he will a generic D and he will likely lose by a healthy margin (maybe not a 12 points margin) but it will be very difficult for him to win more than 46% of the vote

His 2015 opponent was very well funded.

Yes, running as a statewide Dem in MS in 2015 was a nightmare. The Dem nominee for Gov was a freaking truck driver who couldn't even get 1/3rd of the vote. Yet Hood still scored a double digit win. As such, I think Hood is on track to perform much better than a generic Dem in MS would.

You have to keep in mind that in 2015 he was an incumbent in a generally non partisan race, this year it will be a high profile race and he won’t have the incumbency advantage and the benefit of running against someone who is unknown, considering the financial gap we are talking about a six to one financial advantage for Reeves, Hood will get carpetbombed

Hopkins was very well funded and run numerous ads against Hood throughout the campaign.

Hopkins ? If I’m remember well the republican candidate had for name Hurst.

Well, we will see, we will have to agree to disagree, but for me Reeves will likely win, Hood won’t have the benefit of the incumbency, a GOV race is more polarised than a AG race, no doubt that Hood is a stronger D candidate than the one of 2015 but in the end he is a D and a D will have hard time winning in MS

[Frenchrepublican]

What is this nonsense about how row offices are less polarizing than gubernatorial voting patterns? If anything, they are more polarizing since they are forgettable offices that people usually just check the ballot with their own partisan leaning on. Notice how there’s minority party Governors in MD, MA, KS, VT, MT, and LA but no row offices held by the minority party in those states. People like Jim Hood, Kim Wyman,  Nicole Galloway are the exception to the rule.

And Nikki Fried ? The only democrat to win a statewide race in 2018. And Shapiro in PA who was elected despite Clinton and McGuinty losing the state ?

[Frenchrepublican]

They liked Hood as AG, but a Democratic Governor might be too much these days.

I'm skeptical a Democratic Governor is too far. Senator, yes. But we've had Democrats win gubernatorial races in redder states like KS, KY, MT, LA, WV, and AR within the last ten years. It'll probably take voters turning sour on Reeves though as well as Hood maintaining good favorables though.

Also look at the Senate Special election runoff from last year, if a liberal black man could come within 6 points of a Republican in a Senate race, I see no reason a moderate white dude with vast experience winning statewide elections in the state couldn't eke out a victory in an off-year gubernatorial race.

Any Dem who run a serious campaign is assured to win 45% of the vote in MS, Espy ran a serious campaign and thus he was able to come relatively close but it’s not exceptional