Why Cheney lost the debate

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Cheney came into this debate extremely well prepared.  His answers were sharp, well-focused, and generally effective.  He has gotten high marks from a lot of the TV pundits.

Yet the flash polls and small group reactions seem to be scoring the debate a win for Edwards.

It seems to me that Cheney lost because he was simply too negative.  The first thing that struck me about this debate that I commented on was how blantantly Cheney came out in all-out-attack mode.  Cheney has high negatives, and simply does not have the personality traits to pull off these attacks without turning a lot of people against him. 

Cheney won his debate in 2000 by appearing congenial, surprising the conventional wisdom about him.  Tonight, Cheney played to his weaknesses; he was snarling, grating, and when claiming that Edwards had never met him, transparently petty.

Edwards wasn't wonderful, but was able to emphasize his strengths.  His sunny personality allows him to pull off attacks that Cheney can't.  So while Cheney was better prepared and had a more comprehensive range of responses, his style turned people off.  It may not have turned off the media, who are always itching for a fight, but I have a feeling it didn't sit well with America.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

ABC produces a phone snap poll.  Cheney was 43-35.  The others are internet polls with zero reliability.  One such poll has Edwards at 99%.  Realistic???  Maybe in Paris or Boston.

ABC's poll had way too many Republicans, and still showed Kerry improving in the horserace.  CBS also published a polls of just swing voters showing a big win for Edwards.  Still waiting for the CNN/Gallup poll.

I'm not going to claim any internet poll is reliable, but I haven't seen any evidence at all yet that the public thinks Cheney won this debate.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

"America's light is flickering"

OOOOOH the WONDERFUL AND POSITIVE EDWARDS.

Shut up nick "troll" G. This isn't cable TV it's an internet forum with a few dozen regular posters, stop spinning.

I'm not trolling (and this is the first time I've heard anyone accuse me of this)...based on the evidence I've seen so far, I sincerely believe that more American feel Edwards won this debate.  I personally think it was a draw, and I know most people on this board think Cheney won, but the public frequently surprises us.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Just my opinion based on very limited data so far...we'll see how it shakes out in the coming days.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Listen, I agree with many of the comments here on the substance of the debate.  I'm just claiming that the polls and focus groups have and will show that Edwards beat Cheney among swing voters....not by a wide margin, but a win nonetheless.  And then I'm trying to explain why this result happened, as it will be surprising to many people.  If you think I'm wrong, show me some poll numbers.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Just to back-up my own assertion a bit:

Edwards won CBS's poll of uncommitted voters, 41-28.
Edwards won among undecided voters in the Democracy Corp poll, 43-25.
Edwards won among independents in the Democracy Corp poll, 37-34.
Edwards apparently won among independents in the ABC poll, 43-34 (although I can't confirm this figure).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Here's what Frank Luntz said about the focus group he did for this debate:

Luntz: "Edwards won on style, but Cheney won on substance. There will be no shift after this debate. This freezes everything until Friday's presidential debate."