Indonesia-Presidential and Parliamentary elections-17th April

[urutzizu]

So the worlds largest Muslim country and third largest democracy just voted for a new president and Parliament.

The two contenders for the Presidency are (Indonesian law only allows two):

Joko Widodo, incumbent President


Jokowi is generally seen as a secularist (his running mate is a islamic cleric however) and has tried to attract chinese investment (Belt and Road), which is very controvesial.
 
The other Contestant is Prabowo Subianto
 

Although Prabowo, a former Army officer claims to be secularist as well (his brother and mother are christian), he has the backing of many controversial islamist groups and has openly courted religious voters, trying to ride a more assertive islam that has begun to appear in usally very tolerant Indonesia.

[urutzizu]

Polls have closed couple of hours ago and while official results wont come in for a long time, first unofficial "quick counts" give Jokowi a lead.

[urutzizu]

In the Parliamentary election:

PDIP, the ruling Party of Jokowi is leading with 26.41%
Golkar, one of his allies has 12.5%

Gerinda, Prabowos party has 11.14%

PKS, the Hardline Islamists backing Prabowo have 5.53%

The electoral Threshold is 4%, seats are allocated by Proportional Representation, meaning whoever wins will have form a large coalition.

[urutzizu]

Jokowi still in the lead with quick counts surpassing 50% counted:

LITBANG KOMPAS: Jokowi-Ma'ruf 54.17%; Prabowo-Sandiaga 45.83% based on 65.85% of sample ballots

INDO BAROMETER: Jokowi-Ma'ruf 52.8%; Prabowo-Sandiaga 47.2% based on 65.5% of sample ballots

CHARTA POLITIKA: Jokowi-Ma'ruf 54.51%; Prabowo-Sandiaga 45.49% based on 79.33% of sample ballots

POLTRACKING: Jokowi-Ma'ruf 54.8%; Prabowo-Sandiaga 45.2% based on 76.65% of sample ballots

INDIKATOR: Jokowi-Ma'ruf 54.32%; Prabowo-Sandiaga 45.68% based on 72.11% of sample ballots

[urutzizu]

Basically all quick counts are at 80%+ counted and Jokowi’s lead remains at about 55-45.
The Straits Times (which is quite reliable) has called it for Jokowi.
So in essence this election is almost a complete repeat of 2014.

Prabowo will be allowed to attempt to challenge this in court (similar to last time), but extremely unlikely that anything will happen, considering he has no real substance to back up his claims.

Hopefully  Jokowi will now, since he is in his second and (according to the constitution at least) final term, crack down on Islamists more and take more radical steps to reform the economy as he doesnt have to bribe voters anymore with subsidies.

[urutzizu]

What should be very interesting is seeing how different regions voted, especially ones that are religiously different, since this election was far more religiously polarizing then 2014 (or any before that, for that matter.

Whether Prabowos attempts at wooing religious conservatives worked should be visable if he, as expected, wins blowouts in the Sharia-enforcing Region of Aceh and in conservative West Java (despite the Governor being a Jokowi ally)

And Whether Prabowo scared away Christians, Hindus and moderate Muslims should be visable if Jokowi wins Landslides in Christian Papua and West Papua, west Timur and Hindu Bali as well as Jakarta, where there was huge Controversy about the alleged Blasphemy of the Christian Governor.

Sopojarwo, do you know where to see regional results?

[urutzizu]

Thank you.

Mostly in line with expectations, except for West Papua. Maybe the (preliminary) results there have something to do with anger at Jokowi because of the Insurgency. Or possibly Prabowos Christian family was reassuring for some Christians that Prabowos was tolerant after all.