Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,344
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« on: March 19, 2012, 11:06:11 AM » |
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« edited: March 19, 2012, 11:08:02 AM by No hablo ingles PR Voter »
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Rick had his chances in MI and OH for game changers. It is hard to see a place now where he can pull one off, but some possible future game changers could be:
- Win IL
- Win WI AND MD on April 3 (he isn't on ballot in DC)
- Win PA, DE and one of NY, CT, RI on April 24.
- Win every state big in May (including OR)...and real big delegate win in TX
That all leads to giving him enough momentum to stop Romney from getting to 1144 on June 5th, which means Rick needs to compete in CA and hold down Romney's delegate gain along with winning a couple of other states on that day (MT and NM for example).
Looking at that todo list, it may be that inTrade is pricing a brokered convention too high at 18%.
Right now I think the only person who could do a game change is Romney. He could either overperform (like winning every race between now and May including PA). Or he could have some colossal gaffe/revelation that gives Rick a new lease on life.
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