New Tradesports rankings

[Likely Voter]

are you guys going off bid/offer or last

the following is the current offer prices (which makes sense since that is what it will cost you to make your bet)

GOP   Nomination / President
THOMPSON(F)   28.8 / 15.9
GIULIANI   25.8 / 13.5
ROMNEY   22.4 / 10.7
MCCAIN   12.9 / 8.8


Dems:   Nom / Pres
CLINTON   49.8 / 34.6
OBAMA   30.8 / 17.9
GORE   10.7 / 7.9
EDWARDS   5.9 / 3.6

I guess once you have to put your money where your mouth is...then it is 50/50 that we are looking at President Hillary

[Likely Voter]

^
I am not exactly sure you can infer that really

[Likely Voter]

McCain's meteoric drop is amazing. I think people kept thinking he was 'McCain 2000'...the independent maverick...a perfect candidate for a 'change election'

but once people took a look they realized he has changed....he now seems much older and he has linked himself to Bush on the two big issues. One to piss off the right (immigration) and one to piss off the middle and the left (Iraq).

what is his next trick...to say 'I hate kittens and babies'?


by the way...what is the price that you guys focus on here?
bid, ask or latest?
I would imagine that last or ask would be best

[Likely Voter]

From a financial perspective, I say Romney is WAY undervalued at 20.  I don't think I'd risk a bet on Thompson or Giuliani, though.

Selling McCain at 10 seems like another pretty surefire bet.

selling McCain at 0.1 would be a surefire bet

I am thinking of Buying some Romney  almost a 5/1 odds seems like good money and I still think he will in the top two coming out of January with either Rudy or Fred being the other one.

I am curious...has anyone here bought in on any 'stocks' at tradesports

if so what do you own and where did you buy it at?

[Likely Voter]

it might be worth dropping some bucks on Gore....a longshot but with 10 shares for 80 bucks paying off 1000 bucks it is worth it

[Likely Voter]

I now own clinton for nom and overall win, Romney for nom

thinking of buying some mccain to dropout by dec. if only they had a 'by jan31' when I am sure he is gone. 

that thing is addictive though


I think we should form an 'Atlas Forum' mutual fund with the combined punditry here

[Likely Voter]

so the money where your mouth is map is thus:

Dem: 293
GOP: 245

[Likely Voter]

although Obama isnt likely to win the nomination, 7 to 1 is a pretty good payoff...I think I may add some Obama to my portfolio.

[Likely Voter]

why on earth is Guilliani still the favorite in the betting? He isnt leading in any of the early primaries and he is now trailing Huckabee in the national polling. He is a scandal ridden gun hating, gay loving,  thrice-married New York liberal with health problems trailing in the polls...why are people still betting on him winning?

[Likely Voter]

we all know that he will lose and lose badly in both IA and NH. And the winner or winners from those two will both get bump in the national polls and subsequent state polls. Of this there really can be no doubt. Is this priced into the market? Or will all the Rudy buyers panic in mid January when they see is is running 3rd-5th in every state poll for the rest of the month and 3rd nationally

[Likely Voter]

If the GOP market goes crazy then it will show that this isn't a very rational market. The real stock market 'prices in' foreseeable market events like low/high quarterly results, product launches, etc.
McCain and Guilliani are going to lose in IA. That should be priced in now. If not then the buyers of those stocks are just morons.

[Likely Voter]

If the GOP market goes crazy then it will show that this isn't a very rational market. The real stock market 'prices in' foreseeable market events like low/high quarterly results, product launches, etc.
McCain and Guilliani are going to lose in IA. That should be priced in now. If not then the buyers of those stocks are just morons.

Well yes, the fact that only Huckabee and Romney have a realistic chance of winning Iowa is presumably already priced into the market.  But right now, we're kind of operating in a vacuum of information as to who is the favorite between them (because the polls show that they're just about dead even, and polling a caucus is extremely difficult anyway), and the difference between a narrow Huckabee victory and a narrow Romney victory is potentially enormous in terms of determining the eventual nominee.  (As is, to a somewhat lesser extent, the question of who comes in 3rd.)

So it's a bit like the share price on a company that has an earnings report coming out, which could go in one of two directions: 1) the company could either see enormous growth and potentially double in size, or 2) the company could end up doing so dismally that it risks going out of business.  If the details of that report were to leak out, and it showed #2 (things were so bad that the company might go out of business) then the share price would crash immediately, even if the possibility that that *might* happen was already priced into the market.

I a gree...which is why I didnt mention Huckabee or Romney. I would expect a lot of movement on them. But that would not explain crashes in Rudy or McCain shares when the market knows right now both will not win. That being said I expect Guilliani to fall, but I would then ask the people selling Rudy...what did you think would happen?

[Likely Voter]

Just what is it going to take for Giuliani to drop down to ~10 for the nomination?  Does he have to start winning negative delegates?

A loss in Florida would serve nicely.

But, as I have said before, shouldn't that be priced in right now. After two losses he has dropped in FL and it will only get worse after MI, NV and SC. Plus he has money problems.

Clearly Huckabee has a better shot at the nomination and probably Romney as well.