Trump Likely to Win Re-Election, According to a Dem Strategist

[Person Man]

Georgia and Arizona are rapidly trending D and Trump's approvals are terrible there. In 2020 a lot of people here may end up looking very foolish-though this is Atlas so most people are foolish.

You had Clinton beating Trump 340-198.

You Trump supporters are the arrogant ones now. The pendulum will swing back and hit you hard.

It's sadly normal for them to think like this.

Jade's Law: "The party in power is smug and arrogant, and the party out of power is insane. "

In all seriousness, I'm not certain that Michigan and Pennsylvania are doomed to be GOP forever. Those states voted Republican in 2016 IMO because Hillary was that weak/unpopular as a candidate and Trump's populist rhetoric gave a lot of people in that region hope that he could be a unique Republican that would "bring jobs back" and end "bad trade deals". However, a lot of that optimism from the reluctant Trump voters in the Rust Belt seems to be evaporating now that his touted deal-making skills have fallen flat on their face, and the only way that those states could vote GOP in 2020 is if the Democratic nominee is REALLY bad.

Something like this. I could see Trump being given a shot to win based on Democrats doing well in 2018 ala 94-96.

[Person Man]

It's time to stop the personal attacks and ad hominem, all it shows is you cannot rebut my argument logically. Trump's win was always possible and in line with the fundamentals, however looking at the evidence it is foolish to say he is favored for re-election.

The fundamentals are that he will be re-elected if unemployment is falling in 2020. In 2004 and 2012, it was fair in the former and poor in the latter, but recovering.

We were already recovering in 1992, but unemployment was still rising. Same with 1980.

[Person Man]

The fact that all Trump supporters can do is circle jerk about the morning of November 9th and how he pisses the left off and not any policies he has actually passed is a testament to his failure in office.

Basically the last 11 and a half months has been nothing but an exercise in belligerent nihilism. It will continue until there are concrete signs of the "pendulum swinging back" and definitely will continue as long as there is just a lot of anger against the belligerent nihilism and thus simply leading to more belligerent nihilism.