Since FL and AZ are moving Dem, the days of close elections are over
How is Florida moving Dem? Sure the Democrats picked up a few US House Seats but overall Florida was resistant to the 2018 Democratic Wave with statewide elections. Florida elected a Republican governor for the sixth time in a row, while flipping a US Senate Seat from Democratic to Republican.
You might be right as long as Democrats stay home downstate. I was totally expecting in both 2016 and 2018 for Dade county to make up the difference. People stayed home.