South Africa 2009

[Linus Van Pelt]

Somewhat counterintuitively, Zuma is actually more anti-Mugabe than Mbeki and the traditional ANC, even though he is sketchier on internal matters. I think that this may have something to do with his base being the unions and the left more generally. (The MDC in Zimbabwe is heavily union-backed).

[Linus Van Pelt]

That's a big underestimate on the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), too, I would imagine. The split in the ANC will benefit them somewhat, and they should get close to 10%.

Hmm, not sure about this. Zuma, unlike Mandela or Mbeki, is Zulu, and his strongest base is among Zulus. Wouldn't surprise me if he brought along a bunch of IFP voters over. (Though Dan's point about not having a phone would particularly apply to IFP voters too).

[Linus Van Pelt]

Maybe it's my browser, but that web site sure is troublesome for me. I'm currently getting "Infinity" (in words) for all except three parties which have "NaN". Even when the results were numbers, it often stayed the same numbers when I went from provincial to national, making it hard to know what was what.