How would you rate TX-Sen?

[Orser67]

Likely R.

Points in favor of competitiveness:
-Likely good-to-great Democratic year nationwide
-Decent Democratic candidate
-Democratic momentum/interest in the state due to 2016's relatively competitive presidential result and some potentially competitive 2018 House races
-I'd argue that Cruz is a weaker-than-average incumbent
-Texas's relatively low voter turnout and large non-white population gives the party room for improvement

Points against competitiveness
-TX hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since 1988 and has a PVI of R+8
-Governor Abbott seems fairly popular and could potentially help Cruz by turning out Republican voters
-Other competitive races could potentially siphon money away from O'Rourke in an expensive state
-TX Republicans have a history of performing relatively well with Hispanic voters