Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Deeds is really pumping the endorsement.  Everything I've seen in NOVA mentions it, and his yard signs have Washington Post in letters almost as large as DEEDS.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

North Virginia loves their Washington Post?

Big time.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Deeds is really deedsing his deeds. Deeds needs to deed his deeds in order to Deeds though. Just saying.

Agreed.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Deeds' momentum is coming from Anybody But McAuliffe voters.

Possibly.  Moran has stayed steady, though, which leads me to believe it is mostly undecideds who are breaking for Deeds.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Wow.  This is pretty fantastic, to say the least.  I don't see how Deeds loses at this point.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I wouldn't be completely shocked if Deeds broke 50% if turnout is as low as many think it will be.

I would.  I don't see him breaking 40%, but maybe I'm just being pessimistic.  I do think, though, that turnout will not surpass 200,000; it was around 160,000 in both 2001 and 2005.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The storms are absurd in Arlington.  I'm posting from my synagogue; my house lost internet around 6 AM.  All day, though, it was beautiful, so I don't expect turnout to be down too much here from what it otherwise would have been.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

What does she mean when they say there hasn't been a Democratic gubernatorial primary in thirty years?

Competitive, most likely.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

On to victory with Deeds! 

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Here's an interesting article on what may have done it for Deeds: http://www.clickz.com/3634043

Interesting.  I probably got 10 facebook messages from Deeds groups on Tuesday alone.  Hopefully this carries over into the GE.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Creigh Deeds (D): 47%
Robert McDonnell (R): 41%

Excellent.  The race will tighten, but this is a good start.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Deeds moved his HQ to NoVa, hilarious.

He's discovered that most of the strategists and leaders he'll need to talk to for the general live around there

No surprise.  He needs to make sure the NOVA voters turn out in full force.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Deeds moved his HQ to NoVa, hilarious.

He's discovered that most of the strategists and leaders he'll need to talk to for the general live around there

No surprise.  He needs to make sure the NOVA voters turn out in full force.

An HQ isn't really about regional turnout.

True, but it shows that he knows where his priorities need to be.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Post-primary bounce it may be, but I was not expecting it to be quite this big. I was expecting it to turn into a tie.

It was basically a tie before the primary; why wouldn't it turn into a Deeds lead post-primary?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Post-primary bounce it may be, but I was not expecting it to be quite this big. I was expecting it to turn into a tie.

It was basically a tie before the primary; why wouldn't it turn into a Deeds lead post-primary?

Rasmussen had Deeds down 45-30 in April.

Someone had it 42-41 a couple of weeks ago; I feel like it was R2K, but I may be wrong.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

SurveyUSA had it 44-43 last week, that might be what you are thinking about.

Yeah, that's it.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I want to keep it legal, and care somewhat, but it certainly isn't a major issue for me.  I don't see how people can have it as a hot-button issue.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

He's a Christian.

Christian politician=theocrat

Creigh Deeds is a devoted Christian.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Yes, let's support McDonnell instead. I'm sure he'll be much more to your liking on that issue.

That was a key point I used when I talked to people before the primary.  They would say that they don’t like Deeds’ position on gun control, and that was why they were going to vote for Moran/McAuliffe.  I’d tell them that if they did so, not only would they elect a Republican Governor who held the same position on gun control as Deeds, but held none of his good views on economics, education, abortion, etc.  It actually worked out to be a pretty strong selling point.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Deeds internal:

D: 42% R: 38%

http://bluevablog.blogspot.com/2009/06/new-poll-deeds-42-mcdonnell-38.html

[Kaine for Senate '18]

And I bet McDonnell's internal shows the same thing, so let's just say it's a tie.

Probably, yeah.  I don't see either candidate ever being ahead by more than 3.  It'll be within the margin of error up until the election, when Deeds wins by 2-3%.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I'm glad I don't live in Virginia.

I'm glad I don't live in Oregon.  It's rainy, cold, and just plain awful.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

That looks about right to me; when you factor in the Black and Hispanic undecideds, it'll give Deeds a rough margin of 51-48.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Given these two candidates, it would take a major shift to get either candidate out of the margin of error.  I dunno what they'd need to do, or if there's anything they can do; it may all depend on Obama up until election day.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

When are we going to get another poll?