JFK Lives

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Between school and debate, I just don't have any free time.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

In three weeks, there will be a new update.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

One week from today

[Kaine for Senate '18]

This was view 30,000

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The Second Term of Carroll Campbell

“As we enter the last four years of this century, I see an America that can handle any challenge, no matter how potent.  That, my friends, is the American spirit: the ability to conquer any foe, no matter who, or what, it may be.”  On that optimistic note, President Campbell enters the last four years of his Administration, facing approvals in the high 50’s, and, for the first time, a completely compliant Congress.

As his first act with the new Congress, Campbell propose the Welfare Reform Act of 1997.  The legislation, written by Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D-NY) and Congressman Mark Sanford (R-SC), would require anyone on welfare after six months to face periodic reviews of their situation, as well as setting an overall limit on the amount of time a person could spend on welfare, without extenuating circumstances such as disability.

From the beginning, the WRA faces severe opposition.  Senator Edward M. Kennedy (D-MA) calls it, “An attempt to destroy America’s less fortunate, to leave them with no options besides a life of crime.”  Senator Paul Sarbanes (D-MD) decries it as, “A shameless cave-in to corporate interests and all those who have no regard for America’s poor.”

However, the Senate bill does attract a large number of conservative Democratic supporters.  Senator Ernest Hollings (D-SC) calls it, “A positive step towards truly reforming a broken health care system.”  Al Gore (D-TN) says, “This may not be perfect, but we need to reform welfare, and this bill is a start.”

Senate liberals then begin a lengthy filibuster which is not broken until June 24, by a vote of 60-40, exactly the margin needed to break the filibuster.  Every Republican except John Chafee of Rhode Island votes for cloture, and 7 Democrats (Richard Shelby of Alabama, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, John Breaux and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Kent Conrad of North Dakota, Hollings, and Gore) break lines to vote in favor of it.  On July 27, by a vote of 57-43, the bill passes, and is sent to the House, though debate does not begin because of the August recess.

When the House reconvenes on September 2, debate begins – if it can be called debate.  The Rules Committee, now led by Republican Gerald B. H. Solomon of New York, moves debate along quickly, and the new Speaker, Newt Gingrich of Georgia, keeps Republicans in line.  On October 8, by a vote of 232-203, the bill passes, and on October 11, Campbell signs the reforms into law.  The next day, the New York Times front page bears the headline: “Campbell to welfare recipients: drop dead.”

On November 2, Soviet Premier Vitaly Fedorchuk dies after 10 years as Premier, at the age of 79.  He is replaced by Boris Yeltsin, the former Mayor of Moscow and Soviet Foreign Minister.  On November 19, Campbell travels to the Kremlin to meet with Yeltsin, and the two men promise a renewed era of cooperation between the Americans and the Soviets.

On January 7, international conservatism is dealt a blow as the British Labour Party, led by Tony Blair, manages to retake Parliament for the first time in twenty plus years.  Blair, at age 45, is the youngest Prime Minister since Lord Liverpool in 1812.  On January 17, Blair and Campbell meet, and Campbell, in a statement to the press, says that, “The special relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom will continue, as strong as ever, with Mr. Blair at the helm.”

In his State of the Union on January 25, Campbell praises Congress for passing the WRA, and promises more legislation in the coming months.

On March 4, a bomb explodes outside the US Embassy in Sana‘a, the capital of Yemen, killing 19.  Responsibility for the attack is claimed by a terrorist organization known as al-Qaeda, and Campbell responds with a series of bombing campaigns that kills over 1,000 Yemeni and Omani civilians, although a small al-Qaeda hideout is reported as destroyed.  A report issued by the Department of Defense in October reports that the bombings were not as well targeted as they could have been, resulting in unnecessary civilian deaths.

On June 13, Campbell presents the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1998, which would reduce the number of “frivolous” securities lawsuits filed in federal courts, by making investors have facts in-hand that strongly suggest a deliberate fraud.  The legislation faces little opposition; it passes the Senate 89-7 on July 27, and the House 387-40 on September 10, being signed by the President on September 12.

The Congressional Elections

On elected day 1998, President Campbell holds an approval of 56%.  However, despite Campbell’s high approvals, the GOP suffers losses in both houses, but manage to retain them both.

Senate Results

Republicans: 51 (-3)
Democrats: 49 (+3)


House Results
Republicans: 220 (-16)
Democrats: 214 (+16)
Independents: 1 (-)

[Kaine for Senate '18]

1. How has Dan Quayle been as VEEP? Has he made similar gaffes as he did OTL? As of 1998, would Republicans be nervous about running him in 2000?

Quayle has been fairly low-profile as Vice President, and so he has not made many gaffes in his nearly 6 years in office.  Republicans have no qualms with him running for President, except those who feel he's too conservative.

2. With the USSR still living on longer than OTL, is there a huger push from conservatives for anti-communist policy? How strong is anti-communist sentiment in America?

Not a huge push, and Campbell's fairly moderate Presidency has left the strongly anti-Communist conservatives out in the cold.  Anti-Communist sentiment in general is weakening, since no President has made it a major theme.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Update in the next 18 hours

[Kaine for Senate '18]

It's gonna be at least another week guys.  I'm at camp, and thus away from the computer with my timeline.  Sorry

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Hey Ben, have JFK's extramarital affairs been discovered yet (sorry if you already pointed this out in the TL)?

They have not.  The media still loves JFK, and with his son being the (former) Governor of Massachusetts, they have stayed under wraps.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I'm feeling an update tomorrow.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

When I get back from Paris on Sunday

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Have fun in the meantime. How is it? I've never been to "latin" Europe.

I rather preferred Britain, but the Louvre was amazing, and I look forward to returning to it, and going to Versailles.

Ok, Ben let's go straight.

If you won't update your TL after return, we're hijacking this thread just as we did to Gporter's 1972 thing.

Thing is a good way to put that.

It will be updated then, I promise.  At least I'm not Lief

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Ah, I've only been to Heathrow. Will you be swinging north to Germany afterward?

Nah, I leave for home Sunday morning.

Maricopa would be very unlikely to go to the Dems, it hasn't since '48.  But other than that, it's great!

Keep in mind, this is a different timeline.  Also, remember the Third Party in 1980 - he took a good % in Arizona, so that could have contributed to it.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I just read this whole TL, & I like it.

Excellent

[Kaine for Senate '18]

As I finish the 1998-2000 update, enjoy the 1996 county map (also viewable in the Gallery)

[Kaine for Senate '18]

In his State of the Union Address on January 22, 1999, President Campbell declares, “Our economy is as strong as it has ever been.  The Line Item Veto has given me the ability to weed out unnecessary spending, and the WRA has prevented people from taking advantage of our welfare system.”

On February 9, Campbell travels to Moscow to meet with Soviet Premier Yeltsin to discuss a new arms limitation treaty, as well as the continuing issue of human rights abuses in the USSR.  Ultimately, nothing comes of the discussions, fueling conservative anger at Campbell.

On February 20, in a speech to the Knesset, with Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu of the Likud Party looking on stoically, Campbell calls for “A permanent two state solution, in which both Israelis and Palestinians can live in peace.”  The speech is criticized by conservatives for being too harsh on Israel, and by liberals for not being harsh enough.

On March 7, Campbell meets with Netanyahu and Yasser Arafat at Camp David for a three day summit which Campbell hopes will result in some sort of preliminary agreement.  Nothing comes of it, though, after Netanyahu storms out following an innocuous remark by Arafat about Israeli killings on Muslims.  Just two months later, Netanyahu loses a bid for reelection to the Labour Party of Ehud Barak.

On April 12, Congress begins debate on the Hyde Resolution.  Introduced by Congressman Henry Hyde (R-IL), the HR would prevent any federal funding from going to abortions.  During an acrimonious debate in the House, Congressman Barney Frank (D-MA) punches Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) after Paul calls a woman’s right to an abortion “A fallacy allowing fools and liars to perpetrate a Holocaust of epic proportions.”  Frank is reprimanded officially by the House, and the Debate dies down slightly, with the HR finally being passed on May 29, 221-214.

In the Senate, debate over the HR is just as contentious, with a liberal filibuster consuming months, with many arguments being repeated on both sides.  On September 10, cloture fails 58-42, and debate continues; after much arm twisting, cloture passes 60-40 on October 6, and the bill passes 56-41 on October 11.  Campbell signs the bill on October 14, infuriating Democrats.

In his 2000 State of the Union Address, Campbell puts forward an ambitious job creation program, involving public works and spending.  Democrats, though, still angry about the Hyde Resolution, decide to not cooperate with any of Campbell’s proposals, and so, as the 2000 Election begins, none of Campbell’s new legislation goes anywhere, setting up the fall campaign.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

This TL is epic! Keep it coming!

I intend to release the 2000 Election later today.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The Democratic Nomination

The initial popularity of President Campbell, and the disaster that was the Biden 1996 campaign, had scared off several prominent Democrats from seeking the nomination.  On July 2, 1999, Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa declares for the Presidency, running a progressive populist style campaign aimed at winning a bloc of farm states early on.  On August 5, Congressman John Tanner of Tennessee announces, followed by Governor Ben Nelson of Nebraska on August 28, and on September 19, John F. Kennedy Jr., son of the former President and former Governor of Massachusetts, announces that he will run for President.

Due to Harkin’s presence in the race, the candidates all ignore Iowa, with Harkin receiving 73% of the vote, Kennedy getting 14%, Nelson getting 10%, and Tanner getting 3%.  One week later, Kennedy dominates neighboring New Hampshire, receiving 42% of the vote to Harkin’s 29%; Nelson receives 22%, and Tanner takes 7%.

Super Tuesday, sees primaries in California (Kennedy), Connecticut (Kennedy), Delaware (Kennedy), Georgia (Nelson), Missouri (Nelson), Rhode Island (Kennedy), Massachusetts (Kennedy), Maryland (Kennedy), Maine (Kennedy), Ohio (Nelson), New York (Harkin), Washington (Harkin), and Vermont (Kennedy).  Finishing dead last in every contest, Tanner drops out and throws his meager support to Nelson, who, along with Harkin, vows to fight on.

The next week brings contests in Arizona (Nelson), Colorado (Nelson), Utah (Nelson), Tennessee (Nelson), Florida (Kennedy), Mississippi (Kennedy), Oklahoma (Nelson), Louisiana (Nelson), Texas (Kennedy), and Illinois (Harkin).  Harkin then drops out for Kennedy, but Nelson vows to continue, staking everything on Pennsylvania and North Carolina the next week; Kennedy wins both contests, and Nelson drops out and endorses Kennedy.

At the Convention in Los Angeles, former President Kennedy gives a stirring address in favor of his son, with Senator John Breaux of Louisiana, a Nelson supporter, giving the Keynote Address, and then being selected as Kennedy’s Vice President.  Entering the General, polls show Kennedy with a slight lead.

The Republican Nomination

On the Republican side, it is made clear early on that Vice President Quayle is the establishment favorite.  However, two other candidates step forward.  One, Senator Bob Smith of New Hampshire, ran to the right of Quayle, calling him “a communist front man.”  The other, Congressman Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, ran to the left, criticizing the GOP’s policies on social issues and welfare.

Early on, Quayle appears to dominate, but is stunned when the voters in Iowa end up supporting, by a narrow margin, Bob Smith, who also wins New Hampshire, with Quayle finishing third.  However, Quayle rebounds by winning Arkansas and Nevada the next week.

On Super Tuesday, Chafee is knocked out, with primaries in Alaska (Smith), Delaware (Quayle), Florida (Quayle), Hawaii (Chafee), Illinois (Quayle), Indiana (Quayle), Texas (Quayle), Virginia (Smith), and Vermont (Chafee).  Chafee refuses to make an endorsement.

Smith decides to funnel all of his resources into the next two weeks’ worth of primaries, in California, Georgia, New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.  All the primaries are won by Quayle, and Smith then drops out.

At the Convention in Salt Lake City, President Campbell touts his achievements, attacks Kennedy’s youth, and calls Quayle “The best man for the job.”  Quayle selects Smith as his running mate, and prepares for a long and hard campaign.

The General Election

From the begging, the campaign is hard fought.  Quayle blasts Kennedy as, “Someone who only got to where he is today because of a famous last name” and, “A man not fit to run a pub, much less the United States of America.  Kennedy, meanwhile, calls Quayle, “A man with no respect for, and no knowledge of, the American Constitution,” and points out his distinguished record as a two term Governor of Massachusetts as an indicator of his ability to hold public office.

Before the first debate, on September 27, polls show Quayle at 45%, Kennedy at 45%, and 10% undecided.  After the debate, which strongly goes to Kennedy, Kennedy leads 49-44-7.  Following the second debate on October 12, a Quayle win, it becomes 48-46-6 for Kennedy.  The campaign continues to descend into mud slinging, and the voters go the polls with Kennedy leading 48-46-6, and indicator of how close the election will actually be.

John F. Kennedy Jr./John Breaux: 50.4% PV, 296 EV
Dan Quayle/Bob Smith: 48.8% PV, 242 EV
Others: 0.8% PV, 0 EV

The Congressional Elections

Despite the close Presidential race, the Democrats make strong gains in Congress, retaking both the House and Senate.

Senate Results

Democrats: 53 (+4)
Republicans: 47 (-4)


House Results
Democrats: 231 (+17)
Republicans: 203 (-17)
Independents: 1 (-)

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Just thinking... would they be happy with electing JFK Jr at a few weeks shy of 40?

Age was a pretty big issue, but Kennedy had been Governor of Massachusetts for 8 years and had been quite competent, and so that deflated the issue.  Plus, the Kennedy name has a lot of mystique, and so voters were more inclined to trust JFK Jr. than they otherwise would.

John F. Kennedy Jr.? Cool, it's only fitting that he see the White House in this timeline. What are John F. Kennedy Jr.'s politics? IIRC he was a DLC Clintonesque Democrat OTL, but does this hold true for this TL?

JFK Jr. is a pretty standard liberal, closer to Ted than Jack.  Breaux, though, is a DLC Democrat, so that will have some influence.

Wouldn't JFK Sr. most likely be dead at this point though, due to his Addison's disease? And what is Bobby Kennedy doing ITTL?

Nah, JFK is alive and well; Bobby died of a heart attack in 1994, though.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Additionally, would the Kennedy name have had the mystique had JFK not been assassinated?

Not the same type of mystique.  Rather, there's the association with a successful President.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

What about Caroline? Is the elder sister a prominent figure in the family? And I take it that Jack is the "clan" leader, being the eldest Kennedy. Does this mean that there is no divide, as there was in real life? Does Jack have any additional children?

Carolina isn't that prominent; she teaches law at Boston College.  The Kennedy Family is a very united group, which was seen at the 2000 DNC; Jack didn't have any additional children, since Jackie died in a plane crash in 1972.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Very well. What was JFK Junior's alma matter?

University of Virginia Class of 1982, Duke University Law Class of 1985.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Interesting. He kept his individual flair as in real life, without going to Harvard, which would have been orthodox.

He would have gone, but thought it was inappropriate since his father was teaching there, so he went to UVA and the Duke.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Ah yes, forgot. UVA like his uncles, and then Duke. Is he married to Carolyn Bessette, or did you mention that it was someone else?

Neither.  JFK Jr. married Julia Louis-Dreyfus in 1986, at the Kennedy Compound.  They have three children, JFK III (b. May 1, 1988), Michael (b. January 4, 1992), and Elaine (b. November 2, 1999).

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Julia actually was on Seinfeld, and the episode where she meets JFK Jr. still happened   Also, JFK III is planning a career in politics - he was school president at his local elementary school in Boston.