official SC Democratic results thread (user search)
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  official SC Democratic results thread (search mode)
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Forsyth
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« on: January 29, 2008, 01:12:38 PM »

Looking at the racial composition numbers by precinct, then examining the primary results, there was a lot of variation in the results among white voters.  Urban/rural, which is probably a proxy for income, was the driving influence. 

In Charleston County Obama won all the precincts which are 99%+ white, some with a majority.  These are all affluent areas, some very affluent.

Obama/Clinton/Edwards:

Sullivan's Island - 54%/30%/15%
Kiawah Island - 54%/30%/15%
Isle of Palms - 39%/35%/25%
Seabrook Island - 48%/36%/16%
Mt. Pleasant 16 - 46%/33%/20%
Mt. Pleasant 25 - 46%/29%/26%
St. Andrews 5 - 40%/32%/28%
Charleston 1/2 (the 'silk stocking' district) - 57%/29%/13%

As a check on the affluent white vote, I looked at virtually all-white precincts in some rural counties with little in-migration (and hence not areas of a lot of economic growth), and in none of them did Obama get even 15%:

Bay Springs (Chesterfield Co) - 4%/55%/41%
Cat Pond (Chesterfield Co) - 0%/16%/84%
Brewerton (Laurens Co) - 11%/39%/50%
Holly (Saluda Co) - 10%/55%/35%
Allens (Cherokee Co) - 8%/22%/70%
Cherokee Falls (Cherokee Co) - 12%/30%/59%
Wilkins/Metcalf (Cherokee Co) - 2%/33%/65%

He did a bit better in precincts in rural-ish parts of growing counties in the Upstate:

Gramling (Spartanburg Co) - 16%/34%/50%
Gowensville (Greenville Co) - 16%/40%/43%
Skyland (Greenville Co) - 19%/30%/51%
Tigerville (Greenville Co) - 19%/36%/45%

The picture in urban precincts in Greenville and Spartanburg counties mirror those in Charleston, with Obama winning:

Greenville 18 - 42%/24%/33%
Greenville 23 - 47%/26%/27%
Pine Street Elementary (Spartanburg Co) - 42%/30%/26%
 
I'll take a look at the results in Columbia and other areas, but I would bet the trends are the same. 

Here's where the race by precinct numbers are located:

http://www.scvotes.org/statistics/by_counties_and_precincts

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Forsyth
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« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2008, 10:11:43 PM »

I think he may have done a little better than the exits.  No doubt, though, there was a lot of variation in how whites voted based on income.  I think it bodes well for Obama in the rest of the South, especially Georgia, although the percentages of the black vote he is getting would probably be enough for him to win anyway.  He's been running ads in Atlanta TV since last week.  I think it was the retail politicking he did in South Carolina that really blew his margin up, and unfortunately for him that's not possible from here on out.
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