VA-05: SurveyUSA: Hurt Crushes Perriello (user search)
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  VA-05: SurveyUSA: Hurt Crushes Perriello (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA-05: SurveyUSA: Hurt Crushes Perriello  (Read 2733 times)
Brittain33
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« on: July 21, 2010, 07:40:28 AM »

I guess thats what Perriello gets for voting like a Democrat in a R+5 District.

True, he could be down by 15 points instead...
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2010, 09:10:46 PM »

Perriello was always going to be vulnerable this cycle, but he didn't do himself any favours by voting for the Healt Care Act.
Walt Minnick seems to be in far better shape for example, even though he represents a far more Conservative district than Perriello.

Perriello is unusual in that he votes in what he believes in and what is best for the country, even if it doesn't poll well in his district. So he is probably gone, but having accomplished something, at least.

Minnick won because he was widely respected by Republicans and drew crazy challengers. Perriello never had the first advantage and won't have the second this year.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2010, 09:12:23 AM »
« Edited: July 22, 2010, 09:19:25 AM by brittain33 »

He's there to represent the district, so I'd say polls should be pretty important.

The district voted narrowly for Barack Obama, so in supporting Obama's agenda, he's not actually going against the way the district voted then. On top of that, voters regularly don't understand issues or hold contradictory views. He should try to represent the district's best interests, and in supporting health care reform, he surely believes he's doing so and I agree. Repealing the estate tax may be popular there, too, but in a poor district like that it's not really good policy.

He's not acting like one of those representatives who chooses "to vote their conscience, not the district" by taking big contributions from financial services companies, casinos, military contractors, etc. and then voting with them over their voters' best interests. I'm thinking of the guy who got bounced from MD-4 a few years ago...
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Brittain33
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« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2010, 09:16:29 AM »
« Edited: July 22, 2010, 09:18:09 AM by brittain33 »

I don't doubt for a second that Perriello votes with his conscience. Unfortunately (for him) his district is far more Conservative than he is, thus making himself far more vulnerable than Blue Dogs like Bobby Bright, Ike Skelton and Walter Minnick.

What's so unfortunate for him? He cares more about getting stuff done than having a long career in office, and he was able to do that.

Skelton, Bright, and Minnick would be plenty vulnerable if Skelton hadn't been in office for 30 years and if Bright and Minnick's districts weren't so conservative that the Republican primary turned into a circular firing squad, leaving only the least electable standing. As it was, if Hurt lost to a Teabagger, Perriello would be stronger. Also, as I said in a post a second ago, this district voted for Obama while none of the others came close to doing so.

The biggest factor in Perriello's loss won't be that he supported bringing health care to the 20% or so of people in his district without it, but because the economy is still in the toilet, and with it, the Democrats' macro potential. Also--and this too is beyond Perriello's control--that the electorate in this district varies widely between Presidential election years and off-years. Why shouldn't he represent the electorate that chose him? Did he pretend he was going to be a thorn in Obama's side when he campaigned in '08? I think he's always been a straight shooter.

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Brittain33
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« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2010, 07:32:56 PM »


Ok, I was mixing it up with VA-4.
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