2012 a bloodbath for Democrats in the senate?

[Brittain33]

McCaskill is doing horrible.

That link is February 2009. McCaskill is a very good politician running in a state where Dems are at a slight disadvantage in a normal year and a big disadvantage in an R year. She is someone I expect to be defeated if it's not a good night for Democrats, but I concur with people who say it's too early. I was one of those people predicting a few Senate pickups this year and was very much overtaken by events.

The electorate in 2012 will not be the same one as 2010 which means it's a bit premature to think Herb Kohl is going to get turfed out because Feingold, who always had tough reelections, lost to Tuesday. Scott Brown's looking more vulnerable today than he did last week. We don't even know who's going to be at the head of the R ticket, that makes a big difference.

I think it's pretty certain that Ben Nelson won't be returning and Webb will be a tough hold because of his poor political skills and motivation, but otherwise, the map is much better for Dems than people may realize because they are distracted by the headline number. 2014 is a bloodbath, though.

[Brittain33]

I'm not in touch with Mass. Republicans like some other people here but I really don't think that's going to happen. Scott Brown may be unpopular with some hard core tea partiers, mostly outside the state, for not being 100% against Obama, but he's still too fresh in Massachusetts to be considered someone to oppose. Also, people in the 80% of the country where Republicans and teabaggers had a very good night may not appreciate that Republicans in Mass. had that great night ten months ago and are a bit chastened this week after getting swamped by Democrats. Scott Brown is their only bright spot.

[Brittain33]

Don't be so sure. Remember a couple of things :
- The 2012 class is inherently more democratic than the country, so 2006's results are less surprising than one might think.
- Democrats have at least two chances of picking up seats, in Massachusetts and in Maine if Snowe retires or gets primaried
- There's no reason to think democrats could lose more than 6 seats (not counting their gains), ie what they gained in 2006
- This is assuming the republicans will have a good year in 2012, nothing is less sure

My bet is a net republican gain of 2-3 seats, which would be enough for democrats to hold on. Of course, far better of far worse scenarioes are fairly possible.

Yes, the southeast is almost entirely absent from this class.

[Brittain33]

The link is from 2009, but Pollster's graph is updated up to current time. PPP recently showed her with 40% Approval, 53% Disapproval, and have shown her at a net negative for quite some time. She is definitely a weak incumbent, and if the Republicans nominate a good candidate, she can be taken down.

Aha, thanks.

Needless to say, her prospects in 2012 depend greatly on the generic D vs. R numbers improving for Democrats, and I blame that for holding her down in approval now. I'm sure she'd have lost to a competent Republican if she had to run now, and I believe her approvals can certainly change if the public sours on Republicans (or allows its souring to benefit the Democrats, since Republicans already have low approvals.)

[Brittain33]

Republicans will control redistricting, and thus Democrats will have to do better than one would think.

Except for North Carolina and IN-2, Republicans control redistricting in states where they already had control in 2002 or mid-decade (GA and TX) or have maxed out their gains (TN, AL, LA) so they can't really make things worse for Democrats. Illinois makes up for North Carolina. Republicans controlling the maps amounts to a lost opportunity for Democrats to make things better than the current set-up, nothing more.

[Brittain33]

As for predicting the House will turn over with Obama on the ticket is the same spin said in 1996 with Clinton on the ticket. 

I think it would take some dramatic change for the Dems to take back the House in 2012--the kind of dramatic change we saw Republicans benefit from these last two years--but I will say in defense of your counterfactual that Clinton did have a chance for Dems to take back the House in 1996, but trends in October killed off that opportunity. 1996 could have been a better year for Dems in the House if Clinton hadn't been such a compromised candidate in so many ways.

[Brittain33]

Bill Nelson in FL seems like a strong target for a GOP pickup.
Florida Democrats have really become irrelevant after 2010, and Nelson is their only high profile elected official left. (Republicans hold the Governorship including all statewide offices, veto-proof majorities in both legislative chambers, and 19 of 25 house seats).

With that being said, I wouldn't be surprised if Nelson retired as he will by 70 on election day.

This was pretty much the case when he was elected in 2000... Democrats had been wiped out in the state.

One thing Nelson has going for him is that he's not going to get the massive backlash from seniors that other Democrats got. He has been careful on that topic, and I don't think the generic "health care vote = wants to kill seniors" will work as well in 2012.