Hispanic Voting in Texas and the Southwest

[Brittain33]

Democrats argue that Hispanics come from diverse backgrounds and do not constitute a voting bloc under federal law. They also claim Hispanic voters have not been disenfranchised because the white majority has elected Hispanic candidates to statewide office.



Can we use that argument in Texas?

Do Hispanic voters in Texas come from diverse backgrounds?

Have they been elected to statewide office when they've had to get through a primary first?

[Brittain33]

One guy elected 12 years ago for a down ballot position. Got it. What percentage of Texas is Hispanic, again?

[Brittain33]

One guy elected 12 years ago for a down ballot position. Got it. What percentage of Texas is Hispanic, again?

Alberto Gonzales and Eva Guzman and Victor Carillo have won contested Republican primaries for statewide office and gone on to win in November.

I had a series of snarky responses to this, but it's easier just to lay it out.

Gonzales outraised his opponent by 1,047 to 1 and was appointed by Bush to the seat before he ran for re-election. Despite the fact the seat was only nominally contested and Bush was more popular than God, he didn't break 60%.

Eva Guzman defeated another Hispanic candidate in the primary for the 9th slot out of 9 for the supreme court. Her seat was not contested by someone with an Anglo surname and the GOP had the ability to shape that.

Carillo blames his eventual loss to a guy he outraised 20-1 on his Hispanic surname. Like Gonzales, he only became the incumbent in his first election because a popular governor appointed him to the seat and threw his weight behind the candidacy.

[Brittain33]

60% is a quite comfortable margin in a primary.

Disagree. When an incumbent congressman only draws 60% in a primary against a no-name, it's universally seen as a massive protest vote waiting to be harnessed by a viable candidate who could easily defeat the incumbent.

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Not relevant, since we are talking about low-information voters making judgments based on surname. Her surname is Spanish. I agree with you, the party recognizes the danger in primaries to vulnerable candidates, and Hispanic-surnamed candidates are inherently vulnerable.

[Brittain33]

Her advertising stated that her family was from Alabama, and she wore yellow and used yellow in her campaign (Yellow Rose of Texas).  

Did they include her picture?

No offense, but I never know if you truly believe that the facts you trot out have implications or recognize that they are trivia. I really don't think that putting yellow on her posters when she is running in Texas, for whatever people actually saw her advertising and remembered it, is going to overrule the fact that she had a Spanish last name and that's the last thing people saw when they were in the ballot booth and had to make a decision on a race that the large majority of them knew nothing about.

Muon2: ok if you want to create a "Do Spanish surnames confer a disadvantage in TX primaries, yes/no?" thread out of the geekery going on here in the Nevada thread.

Muon2 response: Works for me.