2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Brittain33]

Big recruting news. Dems finally get a big name to run against Katko I. NY-24 as Juanita Perez Williams is entering the race after declining earlier http://cnycentral.com/news/local/juanita-perez-williams-expected-to-run-for-congress

I don't consider a candidate, who handily lost a mayor election in Democratic-leaning city, to be a "big name"....

We need someone credible to ride the blue wave, and the candidate she lost to was related to (and had the same name as) the biggest Republican name in the district of the last 30 years.

[Brittain33]

Big recruting news. Dems finally get a big name to run against Katko I. NY-24 as Juanita Perez Williams is entering the race after declining earlier http://cnycentral.com/news/local/juanita-perez-williams-expected-to-run-for-congress

I don't consider a candidate, who handily lost a mayor election in Democratic-leaning city, to be a "big name"....

We need someone credible to ride the blue wave, and the candidate she lost to was related to (and had the same name as) the biggest Republican name in the district of the last 30 years.

I know that. And still can't consider her to be  A-list candidate...

Aha. Well, she's not an A-list candidate, and she's not Some Gal.

[Brittain33]

The Koch Bros. will surely figure out this race needs some money for Republicans. It's not far from Wichita.

[Brittain33]

I'm not sure why you'd move tons of safe Rs to likely Rs while adjusting hardly any other categories. Baby steps I guess.

I can understand it as purely a reaction to AZ-8 and looking at comparable "Safe R" seats.

[Brittain33]

LOL! What are they going to do? Hire more consultants?

The Republican establishment spent $150 million on Please Clap so he could finish 7th in Iowa or whatever. I'm quaking in my boots.

The democrats spent about a billion trying to elect a washed up, out of touch, career politician. Instead, they lost to a gaffe machine billionaire who never held elected office.

That proves their point, you know.

[Brittain33]

Oh dear, that canard that Collin Petersen who survived 1994, 2010, and 2014 is suddenly on a knife’s edge for re-election during a midterm of the most unpopular Republican president of the last 40 years. Sure, Sean.

[Brittain33]

Oh dear, that canard that Collin Petersen who survived 1994, 2010, and 2014 is suddenly on a knife’s edge for re-election during a midterm of the most unpopular Republican president of the last 40 years. Sure, Sean.

To be fair, W was more unpopular by 2006-2008, although I haven't checked if he'd dipped far into the 30s by ED 2006.

[Brittain33]

Oh dear, that canard that Collin Petersen who survived 1994, 2010, and 2014 is suddenly on a knife’s edge for re-election during a midterm of the most unpopular Republican president of the last 40 years. Sure, Sean.

Perhaps you missed where he barely beat an unknown opponent as Trump won his district in a landslide (and is still likely very popular there)?

The only reason I am skeptical is that he is facing the same opponent this time.

Ok. Can you give me any examples of a Congressman who barely survived a Presidential year won by a President of the opposite party and then lost in the mid-term election, without there being a big redistricting factor? There may be some, but it would surprise me.

[Brittain33]

Oh dear, that canard that Collin Petersen who survived 1994, 2010, and 2014 is suddenly on a knife’s edge for re-election during a midterm of the most unpopular Republican president of the last 40 years. Sure, Sean.

Perhaps you missed where he barely beat an unknown opponent as Trump won his district in a landslide (and is still likely very popular there)?

The only reason I am skeptical is that he is facing the same opponent this time.

Ok. Can you give me any examples of a Congressman who barely survived a Presidential year won by a President of the opposite party and then lost in the mid-term election, without there being a big redistricting factor? There may be some, but it would surprise me.

Lee Terry? Steve Southerland? Do you guys have complete amnesia?

You’re right, those are two good examples.

[Brittain33]

David Hogg from Parkland has discovered Collin Peterson and is going after him on Twitter.

[Brittain33]

Remember when anyone who ever said anything bad about David Hogg ever was a terrible person?

Well, that’s still true. Pretty much anyone going after Hogg has been a terrible person. I think Hogg is wrong on this, but he may not have the same priorities as me.

[Brittain33]

I'm Ron Estes yes I'm the real Estes all you other Ron Estes are just being testy

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1006138953425145867?s=20

Wonderful news for a Democratic Senate. Thank you big donors!

Interesting list of states. Looks like they aren't too worried about Ohio, which is a great sign.

Also, Sherrod Brown has eleventy-billion dollars and his Republican opponents are underfunded.

[Brittain33]

Sean T at RCP shifted only ONE race to the Democrats.

Man he's getting hackish

He is been hackish since the days when he predicted that Obamacare will fail.

But it did though

No, it didn't. Republicans have taken a big whack to it though.

[Brittain33]

Did you all know Richard Ojeda voted for Trump? 

http://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/392945-dem-house-candidate-in-west-virginia-voted-for-trump

Oh good, that will help him greatly in this anti-Clinton district.

[Brittain33]

Why does everyone think Barbara Comstock is the most vulnerable incumbent lol. She is not even in the top 5.

Who else had a poll come out at -10 vs. their opponent?

[Brittain33]

Aftab Pureval raised $885,000 in the second quarter https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/columnists/politics-extra/2018/07/03/congressional-race-cincinnati-democrat-builds-campaign-war-chest/755780002/

*whistles*

this is what we call a star candidate. OH-1 might be tilt D now - Chabot does not seem to be aware of how real this challenge is getting.

(reminder that South Asian candidates often benefit from stellar fundraising from their communities which may or may not reflect their strength in the district)

[Brittain33]

National Journal has an article that presents the theory Democrats may not be able to depend on Hispanics:

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/669861?unlock=KAUSQTFQV9QBKC1M

This is probably accurate and why CA-10 and CA-21 are not moving to the Dems as people would hope. It's going to take other shifts combined with normal Hispanic turnout.

[Brittain33]

That puts NJ-3 on the map again. Remember, this district had a Dem congressman during the last Dem majority.

[Brittain33]

With recent Democratic gains in the GCB, G. Elliot Morris's model currently gives the Democrats a 70-75% chance of winning the House in November:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1016325775329497088

Interesting. No flips in Illinois or NC, and only Va-10 flips in that state.

[Brittain33]

Tom Malinowski (NJ-07) raised $1.3 million in Q2.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-raises-1-3-million-in-three-months/

New Jersey GOP will regret their dummymander.

The blue wave is building and Lyin' Leo will surely be swept out to sea. Lean D.

Why do you think it is a dummymander? Under the current lines, unless we have a real realignment, NJ-5, -7, and -11 would all have a good chance to flip back to Republican in a reasonable year.

[Brittain33]

Potentially threatened incumbent Democratic out raises opponent 5-1:

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1018718026336800771  

LEAN R

[Brittain33]

Two entrenched Northeast Republicans may be more vulnerable than they appear. Pete King (NY-02) and Chris Smith (NJ-04) were both outraised by their opponents, Liuba Gretchen Shirley and Josh Welle. Smith was outraised by more than 2 to 1! Still not likely flips by any means, but I'm shocked these longtime powerhouses are getting outraised.

NY-02:
Liuba Gretchen Shirley (D): $141,776.03
Pete King (R): $117,105.00

NJ-04:
Josh Welle (D): $275,298.98
Chris Smith (R): $134,500.70

They may have outraised incumbents by %, but the those totals are insignificant for a race in the NY or Philly area and I am sure Smith and King have big CoH. Also Bloomberg is hosting a fundraiser for King.

[Brittain33]

Should we get excited that Archie Parnell outraised his opponent?

[Brittain33]

Should we get excited that Archie Parnell outraised his opponent?

No

Right answer.