Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Brittain33]

California update: 1,519,436 ballots have been returned as of 10/25

Democrats: 647,878 43%
Republicans: 519,466 34%
Other: 352,092 23%

competitive districts:
         Democrats-Republicans-Other  - Total
21   7,258   43.4%   6,231   37.2%   3,244   19.4%   16,733

This is a different story from the primary, isn't it. Also Dems showing strength (or Republicans showing weakness) in 10.

[Brittain33]

If Heller ends up winning in a Democratic wave, maybe Atlas meme magic does work, after all.

I won't believe it unless Heller wins *and* Barb's vaunted oppo research reveals Wexton is a pedophile.

[Brittain33]

Ralston's 1pm PT update on his models:

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This doesn't factor in election day voting which has historically been heavily Republican ( though some of that may be cannibalized in the cow counties)

Yes. He’s explicitly talking about *now*.

[Brittain33]

Today, Dallas County beat its record for EV from the comparable Saturday in 2016. Something like 31,000.

[Brittain33]

Top 10 early voting states so far compared to 2014 totals:

1. Tennessee: 151.9% (Taylor Swift effect?)

I think it's the effect of actually having a competitive election for the first time since 2006.

[Brittain33]

Top 10 early voting states so far compared to 2014 totals:

1. Tennessee: 151.9% (Taylor Swift effect?)
2. Texas: 136.1% (Beto effect?)
3. Indiana: 127.9%
4. Nevada: 114.4%
5. Georgia: 108.8%
6. Minnesota: 106%
7. Delaware: 103.2%
8. North Carolina: 94.9%
9. New Mexico: 93.5%
10. Montana & Louisiana: 87.6%

35th and last: Oregon at 23.9%

Only 35 states have numbers/percentages so far. I guess most of the other states (including Arizona) don't have early voting or it hasn't started yet.

Numbers from electproject.org

With Indiana being #3 on this list... Is the more fervent support for Braun or Donnelly (or the Libertarian)?  I thought this race was somewhat of a sleeper- surprised to see it getting such a high early vote.  How do ppl on the ground in Indiana view this large early vote?

Bear in mind that in 2014, neither the governor nor either senator was up for election, and the only races on the ballot were lower-tier executives and legislative/House.

[Brittain33]

Republicans did win absentees in Washoe by a few hundred votes, though.

October 29, 2018

    Democratic - 966
    Republican - 1,235
    Nonpartisan - 496
    Total - 2,697

[Brittain33]

People keep telling me that the GOP EV is better than dems and that if Dems can’t even win EV they have no shot. Someone  please explain why these people are wrong.

1) Seniors are more likely to vote early than young people and 2) we don’t know how independents will vote but probably majority Democrat amd 3) the gap is a lot smaller than it was in 2014 in most states.

[Brittain33]

I am shocked that Dems have a registration advantage in NY-2.

[Brittain33]

It is quite a letdown to see a new post on this thread when we're all so eager for news and then find it's an empty quote.

[Brittain33]

It is quite a letdown to see a new post on this thread when we're all so eager for news and then find it's an empty quote.

I KNEW THIS WAS GOING TO BE WHAT I FOUND WHEN I CLICKED THE LINK

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058513670982922241

Clark already hit 35K. Looks like it will top 40K, could it reach 45K?

If it does, and Democrats get a strong margin, the freiwal could come close to or hit 45K, and Democrats could come close to a statewide lead of 20K.

The Clark freiwall is getting bigger!

I won't infract the misspelling of freiwal this time, but consider this a warning.

[Brittain33]

Democrats in Shelby County have +30k lead in TN:
https://www.facebook.com/1120290057/posts/10216820073230388/

First time voters are up nearly 1,000% in TN from 2014:
https://twitter.com/politicsreid/status/1058705806676385792?s=21

Gen Z just loves the Marsha Blackburn filter on Snapchat.

[Brittain33]

Democrats in Shelby County have +30k lead in TN:
https://www.facebook.com/1120290057/posts/10216820073230388/

First time voters are up nearly 1,000% in TN from 2014:
https://twitter.com/politicsreid/status/1058705806676385792?s=21

30k in Shelby seems a bit low, doesn’t it?

Clinton won Shelby overall with 208,992-116,344.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058726829773582336

Ralston, just 48 hours ago: "Clark firewall at 33,000, so 40,000 will be difficult but possible if two big days."

60 hours ago: "So 35,000 is a lock, 40,000 would require an average of 3,500 added Thursday and Friday. Unlikely."

72 hours ago: "They will have a firewall — at least 35,000 and as much as 40,000 — but it will not be as large as a presidential year."

Tuesday night: "If past cycle’s turnout patterns hold, Dems will only do better on the last three days in Clark, should get to 35,000, perhaps 40,000. If they get to 40,000, and continue to hold their own in Washoe, the rural landslide will not be enough to save statewides unless Dems are losing more than normal off their bases and losing indies by double digits."

Sunday night: "By the way, the firewall at the end of early voting when Harry Reid was saved by his machine in 2010: 25,000. There were 400,000 fewer registered voters in Clark eight years ago, so a comparable number this cycle would be about 35,000."

One week ago: "They appear on target to get to 35,000 — assuming no odd reversal in trends, with an outside chance to get to 40,000. Either would be a big number for a midterm — 35,000 would make the Dems feel pretty good; 40,000 would make the GOP worry, I think."

[Brittain33]

Registered Democrats up to a 35k vote lead in Iowa, with sizable leads in IA-01 and IA-03.

2016 totals:
IA-1: 68,470 D - 48,528 R
IA-2: 80,100 D - 54,444 R
IA-3: 69,396 D - 57,667 R
IA-4: 49,825 D - 65,161 R

Approx. 2018 Lead vs. 2016 Lead (2018 change):
IA-1: 15,800 D - 20,000 D (smaller D lead)
IA-2: 17,600 D - 25,600 D (much smaller D lead)
IA-3: 12,300 D - 11,700 D (slightly larger D lead)
IA-4: 10,100 R - 15,300 R (smaller R lead)

Dems had a lead of just under 42,000.
https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2016/general/AbsenteeCongressional2016.pdf

[Brittain33]

Why are we comparing raw votes for a midterm to the last presidential? Totally different electorate.

It's something to talk about. It's ok to disqualify it, but it's still interesting.

[Brittain33]

The Hispanic share of the early/absentee electorate is up from 2014 but down from 2016 in most places, it seems.

2016 Presidential election =/= 2018 midterm election.

I don't understand the purpose of pointing this out. We understand turnout won't be quite as high as a President election, but that is the only data set we have for a Trump vs. not-Trump election. We all take it for granted this will be a much better election than 2014 for Democrats; what we need to know is if it will be better than 2016 or around the same for Dems.

[Brittain33]

Currently, 4.5 million votes have been cast so far (since last update at 4 pm) here in Florida, the GOP has ~58K vote lead so far.

good or bad for dems?

2016 had 6.4 million votes cast early and Democrats had a lead of ~80k, in the end it all depends on how NPA's break.

I take that means Florida is likely lost, then?

No, because a) assume NPAs won’t go big for Rs like they did in 2016 and b) Republicans showed up in large numbers on ED in 2016 and we don’t know what’s going to happen this year.

[Brittain33]

I'm kind of skeptical of the predictive value of Pinellas in midterm elections. It's good for predicting POTUS, but Crist/Sink in the last two gubernatorial GEs and Graham in the D primary won Pinellas quite comfortably but lost.

As I think someone pointed out on this thread—apologies if I read it elsewhere—Crist, Sink, and Castor all have roots to Pinellas or Hillsborough County. This time, all 4 candidates are from elsewhere.

[Brittain33]

It's really odd to me why people continue to act like Beto can't win. Sure, is it likely? Probably not. But it's not impossible. I don't get why people here are instantly writing it off. Bad analyzation.

Yeah. We all can make the arguments why Cruz is favored, but this election is a gamechanger in Texas with a different electorate and the first seriously contested race since 2002, so no one should have any confidence in what they believe *must* be happening. It's not hard to envision scenarios where Beto wins narrowly.