2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Brittain33]

Richard Bew, former assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, looking at running in the NC-03 special as a Democrat.

https://twitter.com/RobertWHoward/status/1101138875320279040

Formidable as he would be, I don't really think this district is winnable for Dems.

Yes, the PVI is R+12. Collin Peterson is there, UT-4 is R+13, and OK-5 and SC-1 are hanging out at R+10 but that's it among ~50 Republicans.

Collin Peterson is a longtime incumbent and all three of the districts you mentioned are trending toward the Dems. NC-03 has neither of those factors.

I completely agree. I mention those as odd exceptions.

[Brittain33]

Though it's worth mentioning that if the trend of Dems way overperforming in special elections holds it could be a potential longshot. Just look at the results in KS-04 and SC-05 special elections vs. the general elections. Would almost certainly be a part term rental even if they did win it though.

Is the trend holding though? The GOP has already picked up three of four state legislative seats, including a Clinton seat in Connecticut.

how do you calculate “of four”? I thought there were five seats up for election in Connecticut alone.

[Brittain33]

Karen Handel announced on Twitter this morning that she is seeking a rematch against Lucy McBath in GA-06.

She wouldn't be Karen Handel if she weren't running for something, somewhere.

[Brittain33]

According to the Denver Post, Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO) raised $2 million

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/04/11/cory-gardner-2020-mike-johnston/

[Brittain33]

I’ll bet he goes for senate but it won’t be more than a toss up if he does - if he loses then he will have a tough time running again so honestly Dems might prefer he goes for Senate so Peters can have a chance to knock him out of the ring.

If he goes for Mi-11 he would be a favorite imo - he has big name recognition, would clear the field, and will probably run at least even with Trump in the district.

He literally lost the current borders of MI-11 against Stabenow, and Stevens ran ahead of Stabenow. He would be the underdog regardless of where he runs. Trump will probably lose MI-11 in 2020 as well.

In a D+8 wave year against an entrenched incumbent. I know that you seriously believe the Dems will win the presidency by 15 points in 2020 but not all of us live in fantasy land. If you think Trump is within three in Michigan (as I think he will be), James would most certainly win MI-11 and would be roughly a toss up in the senate.

If MI swings back to Trump from the 2018 shellacking Republicans took, it won't be in an upscale, highly educated district like MI-11 unless Sanders is the nominee.

[Brittain33]

Ortiz Jones narrowly lost, but:

Polls predicted her to lose badly (Upshot)
Hispanic turnout in Texas was a weak spot for Dems in 2018, it cost a state senate seat and probably Beto’s win.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1139388687047749632

Wait until people remember the tax cut, that will goose the R's numbers.

[Brittain33]

Some GOP fundraising numbers in competitive districts:

https://mobile.twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1148636558557421568

Impressive numbers... looks like NJ-7 has potential to be the costliest race in the nation... but I'm curious if any of them are self-funders. McCaul is extremely wealthy.

[Brittain33]

These internal polls are devastating to the democrats.

LOL

He is not good at this.

[Brittain33]

Joey Salads raised only $32K LMAO

Why is America censoring his candidacy?!

[Brittain33]

Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.

Safe R, really. If Paul Davis couldn't win this district in a D wave, I'm doubtful another Dem could in a more Republican year (at least in this district).

I was about to say, we can always draw hope from the fact that 2008 was a bigger Dem wave than 2006, and then I remembered that this is one of the districts Democrats *lost* in 2008.

[Brittain33]

Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.

Safe R, really. If Paul Davis couldn't win this district in a D wave, I'm doubtful another Dem could in a more Republican year (at least in this district).

I was about to say, we can always draw hope from the fact that 2008 was a bigger Dem wave than 2006, and then I remembered that this is one of the districts Democrats *lost* in 2008.

Is Cedric Richmond losing in 2020?

Are you seriously comparing KS-2 to LA-2 or are you trolling

Its Brittain33 who committed a logical fallacy here, I was simply mentioning that a fallacy was being pushed.

While the 2006-2008 experience isn’t determinative of KS-2’s future, it’s ridiculous to compare an outlier election like LA-2 in 2006 to that district’s elections today, whereas I think it’s reasonable to note that KS-2 voted Republican in two Dem wave years (2008, 2016) and rural areas have only trended R since then.

[Brittain33]

I want to know if they polled the horse race before or after they asked voters if they thought preserving freedom was better than bankrupting the U.S. with socialism (I’m not exaggerating, click the link.)

[Brittain33]

This is the district which includes all of SLC, which is probably why they’re curious, but it’s not a populous city.

[Brittain33]

Yeah, these are future leaders of the Republican party, for certain.

Others, like Valerie Ramirez Mukherjee of Illinois, are running for a seat in Congress straight away... An investment manager who supports abortion rights and gay rights and is concerned about climate change, Ramirez Mukherjee said she's stepping up in the hope of helping to change the perception of her party.

Smith, who describes herself as fiscally conservative and socially moderate, now feels like it's the U.S. political system that's broken — and her party is a part of the problem.

Like Pelphrey, many of the GOP hopefuls interviewed by NBC News said they were frustrated by the lack of support from the Republican Party, and some said they were actively discouraged from running by local party members or political consultants. These women said that they encountered concerns about female candidates being perceived as playing "identity politics."

[Brittain33]

These people are so disconnected from the average voter. The average Republican voter is economically moderate to center-right, mostly socially conservative, and very nationalistic. They are not supportive of abortion or concerned about climate change or concerned about being inclusive. lol, the party will just keep electing Trumps in any primaries where they show up if these people keep insisting on changing the party in their way.

A decent amount of republicans are pro-choice in some way

We won't find that out really until Roe v. Wade is overturned and many of those Republicans will have to seriously engage with the issue.

[Brittain33]

CA-48 was the only CA Dem win with a real flawed incumbent. Rouda could fall in 2020.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1179753067195097090

Wait, Loebsack?

Some, but not much, of IA-2 is in tv markets based in IA-1 and IA-3 anyway.

[Brittain33]

WI-6: Fmr. State Senator Jess King running against Grothman.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jessieopie/status/1181977904961540098

She won't win, but a solid candidate.

Remember when people thought WI-06 would be competitive in 2018?

It was a reasonable prediction

Grothman had a public freakout over his chances, right?