I think whoever the Democratic candidate against McConnell is next year (hopefully Stumbo) then they should be able to get in the low to mid 40% range against him. I wonder whether McConnell is really beatable; it would certainly cost the DSCC a lot to find out. Also, the fact that in 2010 Jim Bunning looks easy to beat might mean that the Kentucky race next year is given less priority.
I wonder how much it could cost. Yes, McConnell's a big fundraiser, but Kentucky is such a small state in terms of population that you don't have to spend too much before you've saturated the airwaves. Cincinnati, Louisville, and Lexington are the only big media markets. The DSC has plenty of money to spend.