One is not like the others.
Who knew Oregon would have a 4% rightward shift while neighboring Washington would have a 20% rightward shift at the same time lol
Washington numbers just seem like it's 2022 all over again. Senator Smiley can confirm.
However, I also highly doubt Trump is going to win Alaska by 19 points. Maybe half the margin at best.
I agree with you that AK numbers also look extremely sketch.
Sure, insert usual caveat about Alaska being one of the most difficult states to poll etc...
Sure, I could see a swing towards Trump here, especially because of recent executive actions which could impact oil and gas expansion projects into Wilderness areas.
Maybe inflation might also be a bit more of thing here, when it already costs a lot more for items such as food which need to be imported from the lower 48, etc...
Still it should be noted that Biden was the first Democratic GE Candidate to win Anchorage since LBJ in the '64 landslide.
Sure the city is only about 33% of the entire state's vote share, but considering that historically DEMs tend to perform better in rurals than cities here (Native American vote is a major lift), but still difficult to envision the PUB PRES swing suggested by this poll.
Juneau should still continue to be Solid DEM, and obviously MatSu is pretty close to maxed out for PUBs, and Fairbanks likely a similar gig, so difficult to see where the major swings might be occurring that this poll suggests.
I think everyone may be falling into the post 2012 error of seeing 2020 as a "trend" rather than a one-off. There were undoubtedly trends which built on those in 2018, 2016, and even 2014(Georgia) but there were also quite a few one--offers borrowed Biden votes from otherwise Republican voters who disagree with him on everything and may well find this to be among the most off-putting administrations of their lifetime. There are several of those in my office.
It is possible 2020 is not the real Biden/Democratic baseline and therefore the starting point for a trend is 5%+ lower.
I don't necessarily think that is the case, but there is a remarkable level of certainty on this board that no one changed their mind, whereas I think there is evidence Biden lost a chunk of his Republican 2020 support three years ago in 2021. That would also line up with Biden doing much worse in Utah polling.
