Do polls really matter before October?

[Dan the Roman]

They matter but matter a lot less. Make no mistake. The Biden campaign would prefer a world where all the polls showed them up 2-5% and leading all the swing states rather than the reverse. They might still think they were flawed, but they would not be reliant on every major data point being flawed or misleading for a path to victory.

It's also risky relying on the trials. The percentage in polls who say they are witchhunts is running about 10% higher than the number who felt rhe 2020 election was stolen(generally 43-45% v 32%-35%) and that's both likely Trump's floor, and an indication that the sentiment that 2024 was stolen will be far less divisive and more general than post-,2020 stuff ever was because it is reaching a broader audience.

A conviction probably hurts here only insofar as Trump does worse the more he is in the news, and better the more Biden is.