Vermont gubernatorial election, 2008

[Dan the Roman]

Douglas saved his bacon (or tofurky, this being VT) by vetoeing that IRV bill. But it's not over yet. If Douglas falls below 50%, the D leg. will pick Symington.

Vermont Democrats couldn't possibly be that stupid.

So it would be more intelligent for them to back the incumbent Republican or an independent?

It would be more intelligent to support whomever gets the most popular votes, no?

Ten years ago yes. I think the GOP is all but dead in Vermont that the chance to take out the only remaining Republican in the state would outweigh whatever damage it would do. Plus they will come under enormous pressure from the Daily Kos base to not give up the governorship and for the individuals legislators the threat of primary challengers matters more. Democrats generally are in a much more partisan mood than in 2002. I also think it would depend on the Presidential results. If Obama lost, the Democrats would be under enormous pressure to lash out against someone and Douglas would be an easy target.

That said, Douglas would be smart to nail Symington on pledging to abide by the results. If Symington does, as both Racine and Dwyer did, then it would be hard for the leglisator to elect anyone other than Douglas.

[Dan the Roman]

Douglas saved his bacon (or tofurky, this being VT) by vetoeing that IRV bill. But it's not over yet. If Douglas falls below 50%, the D leg. will pick Symington.

Vermont Democrats couldn't possibly be that stupid.

So it would be more intelligent for them to back the incumbent Republican or an independent?

It would be more intelligent to support whomever gets the most popular votes, no?

Ten years ago yes. I think the GOP is all but dead in Vermont that the chance to take out the only remaining Republican in the state would outweigh whatever damage it would do. Plus they will come under enormous pressure from the Daily Kos base to not give up the governorship and for the individuals legislators the threat of primary challengers matters more. Democrats generally are in a much more partisan mood than in 2002. I also think it would depend on the Presidential results. If Obama lost, the Democrats would be under enormous pressure to lash out against someone and Douglas would be an easy target.

That said, Douglas would be smart to nail Symington on pledging to abide by the results. If Symington does, as both Racine and Dwyer did, then it would be hard for the leglisator to elect anyone other than Douglas.

Dwyer had made that pledge in 2000?  I remember reading that Dean was effectively only barely reelected in 2000 because the Republican Legislature would have voted in Dwyer.  And I had read that Racine plegged not to contest the election in the Legislature even if he got a plurality of the vote as was expected (but didn't happen) but not a majority.

Dwyer did not make the pledge pr-election, but she conceded early on election night before the votes were counted. At the time it was clear she was around ten points behind Dean, but not that Dean was above 50%. She made it pretty clear at the time she had no interest in contesting it.