More of a math question than a political one:
At the current rate of by-election losses and defections (nd assuming there will be no general election) at what point in the future will the tories lose their majority? early 2026?
The Conservative working majority peaked at 90 seats on May 10 2021 according to Wikipedia. Today, 734 days later, it stands at 44 seats. Assuming that the Tories lose majority at a constant rate of seats/day their working majority will reach zero 703 days from now, on April 16 2026.
Good guess!
