The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
Posts: 4,660
Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21
|
 |
« on: May 14, 2005, 05:45:40 PM » |
|
The 2004 election was the most stable I ever seen from a polling point of view.
The thing was dead even till about the end of July.
Kerry was up a point or two in August
Bush was up maybe 4 in September, and that settled back to 2.5 at the end.
Just about all of the very minor change wasn't even really change either, it was simply the historical pattern of various parts of each party's base tuning it according to more or less historical patterns.
I saw a graphic that said that if you just count the three states that actually changed hands (NH, IOWA, NM) the parties spent $1.2 billion to change 20,000 votes.
I was personally surprised how solid Bush's base turned out to be. I expected a very modest Kerry win till say maybe the end of July or so, but the DEm convention didn't change any minds either way, and the GOP actually "got religion" (pun intended) regarding their voter turnout efforts and a very modest Bush advcantage never really faded after that.
|
