Yeah....on the polling trends thing....it looks like Gallup, ICR, and now the Economist all have Bush up 1% in Registered Voters, does that equate to an approximate 3% Likely Voter gap?
Historically, the GOP does "about" 3% better in a LV poll than a RV poll.
This 3% differential is absolutely reliable... unless it isn't.
I Luv your "qualifiers" Thanks
As somebody who has polled for 20 years, I can tell you polling is far, far, far from an exact science.
The whole thing is held together with duct tape, bubblegum and chicken wire. It is something of a miracle that it works as well as it does.
Running a poll is something like watching a waiter carry a huge tray of 6 dinners through a crowded restaruant on the way to your table.
After the election is over and your poll hits MOE you let out a huge sign of relief, but if the thing blows up massively (like the waiter crashing to the floor with 6 plates) you are less than totally surprised, you actually kinda expect it to happen
It's a crapshoot. Anybody who tells you otherwise is either telling lies to you or lies to themselves.