2020: Joe Biden defeats President Trump due to a recession that only starts to improve by September 2020. It's close, but not enough.
2024: President Biden declines to run for a 2nd term as he'd be 82, Vice president Kamala Harris easily wins the nomination and chooses HUD Secretary and former mayor Pete Buttigieg as VP. As Trump lost, the GOP establishment try to find a safe establishment choice and Pence is dissuaded from running. Even though Cruz, Paul and Rubio run, Former Ambassador/Governor Nikki Haley is nominated and chooses Rep. Dan Crenshaw as her running mate.
As GOP enthusiasm is fairly low and the economy is good, Harris/Buttigieg easily win. Texas is decided by under 0.5%.
2028: A recession hits in 2027 and China has become increasingly aggressive geopolitically over the Biden-Harris administrations, and the Democratic party is split between the neo-Liberals, and the far left, led by Senator Alexandria Occasio-Cortez (who threatens to challenge Harris for the nomination but backs off) . Anger towards the establishment GOP and China's aggression allows the nationalist-Populist wing to grow strong enough to become the dominant party force, led by Tucker Carlson and Senators Josh Hawley and Tom Cotton. The GOP also started moving left on economic issues. Sen. Tom Cotton/Sen. John James easily defeats Harris/Buttigieg.
2032: Despite intraparty warring in the GOP, President Cotton's first term oversees peace and steady economic growth. His tough on crime policies and hawkishness are somewhat controversial, however. The AOC-led wing of the Democratic party becomes the dominant force in the party, and she is an early frontrunner and secures the nomination fairly easily (although former HUD Sec. Buttigieg puts up a strong showing). Although it's very close, moderate voters are turned off by the GND and give President Cotton a narrow victory.
2036: Cotton's tariff's and threats of nationalization harms the economy, and his approval drops below 40%. VP John James runs unopposed as most GOPers think the election is a lost cause. Sec. Buttigieg wins the Dem nomination and selects Senator Occasio-Cortez as VP. It's a strong ticket and a landslide win.
Bonus: 2040 sees a Hispanic, pro business Rep. shake up the map.