Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I found a great calendar that has all the upcoming special elections on it, so I will only be updating the OP to post results:

http://www.statenet.com/resources/election_calendar.php

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hey, there was one tonight. Continuing Kentucky's trend of bizarre special election results, a Democrat picked up the House seat of a Republican who won a special Senate election a month or two back.

http://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/exeres/CBFBFF75-CCC3-40E5-A221-0884DFEEB300.htm

Terry Mills (D) - 3,001 (54%)
Leo Johnson (R) - 2,518 (46%)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Also three House districts in Missouri, one Republican and two Democratic. Only one was contested by both parties, and the Democrat held the seat by a 2-1 margin.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hey, there was one tonight. Continuing Kentucky's trend of bizarre special election results, a Democrat picked up the House seat of a Republican who won a special Senate election a month or two back.

http://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/exeres/CBFBFF75-CCC3-40E5-A221-0884DFEEB300.htm

Terry Mills (D) - 3,001 (54%)
Leo Johnson (R) - 2,518 (46%)

I wonder if Terry Mills is the former Kentucky Wildcat basketball star with the same name?

The two articles about the result that I found describe him as a 59-year-old retired social security administration employee.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Bruce Lunsford got 58% in Marion County. The Obama/McCain numbers aren't a good indicator of Democratic strength in Kentucky.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The legislature was split for redistricting, so the map might be a Dem gerrymander or a bipartisan gerrymander, depending on whether each house of the legislature draws their own maps.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Karen Carter won a 2-D runoff in a special state senate election in Louisiana Saturday. Nothing exciting there.

Four New York Assembly seats are up tomorrow, districts 3, 15, 24, and 89. Here's a nice rundown of the seats:

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[JohnnyLongtorso]

Republicans picked up the 3rd and 89th, held the 15th, and Democrats held the 24th.

Results:

3rd
Dean Murray (R/Cons) - 4,186 (51%)
Lauren Thoden (D/Ind/WF) - 4,000 (49%)

15th (97% in)
Michael Montesanto (R/Cons/Ind) - 3,719 (71%)
Matthew Meng (D/WF) - 1,497 (29%)

24th (98% in)
David Weprin (D/Ind/WF) - 4,166 (63%)
Bob Friedrich (R/Cons) - 2,432 (37%)

89th (98% in)
Robert Castelli (R/Cons/Ind) - 6,732 (55%)
Peter Harckham (D/WF) - 5,430 (45%)

Edit: Also, there will be another special, as the State Senate just voted to expel Monserrate.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Ridiculously-small turnout in the Queens district. 23% of precincts in and it's 57-43 for the Dem. Just over 1,100 votes.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

15th wasn't even close, 74-26 for the Republican.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Why don't you just tell us rather than being coy about it? It's not like historical data on a state legislative seat is that easy to come by.

On a purely numbers level, the Westchester result is worse -- it's a 60+% Obama district that the Republican won by 10%, while the 3rd is more marginal (my best guess is about 55% Obama, and the result last night was 51-49).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The chart is as close as you'll get given how fluid the composition of the legislatures is. It's missing the Virginia House vacancy, but otherwise it looks pretty complete.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A few up today:

Alabama HD-40 - Democratic seat, the incumbent died.
Mississippi SD-36 - Democratic seat where the incumbent was appointed to the bench by Haley Barbour. There are seven candidates running, so this one will probably end up in a runoff.
New Hampshire SD-16 - Republican seat, the incumbent was elected mayor of Manchester.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So if the Republican scored an upset in MS SD-36 today, it would tie that chamber?  I understand it is most unlikely to happen.

Yes, the split is currently 26-25 with one vacancy. However, it being a majority-black seat (just drew it in the redistricting app - 65% black), the only way a Republican could win is if he/she is black (since party labels aren't on the ballot). I have no idea who any of the candidates are.

That Alabama seat looks like a GOP pickup, Mississippi one is probably a hold (wow, there is seriously a majority black county in Mississippi called Jefferson Davis County?), and the NH one could go either way, maybe GOP leaning (appears to have voted for Obama but he did arguably overrun in NH, was basically a dead heat in 2004.)

I wouldn't count the Dems out in Alabama; they've managed to hold on to several legislative seats over the past year.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Yeah, looks like a stomping.

http://www.wmur.com/politics/22585344/detail.html

*  Candia: Boutin 355, Goley 125
* Dunbarton: Boutin 274, Goley 162
* Bow: Boutin 664, Goley 572
* Hooksett: Boutin 873, Goley 430
* Manchester, Ward 1: Boutin 803, Goley 701
* Manchester, Ward 2: Boutin 455, Goley 423
* Manchester, Ward 12: Boutin 344, Goley 270

Total:

David Boutin (R) - 3,768 (58%)
Jeff Goley (D) - 2,683 (42%)

Can't find any results for the other two elections.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Scratch that, the local paper has a twitter feed of the Alabama results:

http://twitter.com/AnnistonStar

7/24 precincts:
K.L. Brown (R) 1,013 59.1%
Ricky Whaley (D) 655 38.2%
Carol Hagan (ind.) 47 2.7%

Edit: 12/24 precincts:
K.L. Brown (R) 2,243 59.6%
Ricky Whaley (D) 1,419 37.7%
Carol Hagan (ind.) 100 2.7%

That'll just leave an eight-seat pickup for the Republicans to win the Alabama House in November. Although really, if they come within a seat or two, I'm sure there will be some party-switchers.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Just wonderful.  This is what Obama's Presidency is doing to the Democratic party.  This makes a net loss of eleven state legislative seats since Obama's election.  Democrats should take this guy, put steel boots on him and drown him for what he is done to the party.  This is a huge price for Democrats to be paying just to have a symbol sitting in the White House. 

Obviously, a Republican hold in a state legislative seat is far more important than control of the White House.

Don't feed the troll.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Finally got partial results for the Mississippi Senate race. The top two finishers were Albert Butler and Jimmy Strong (the latter being the one Republican in the race, although the same no-party-on-ballot caveat applies). I'm willing to bet that Butler soaks up almost all the votes from the defeated candidates in the runoff.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

March 9.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Two coming up tomorrow, neither of which are likely to be interesting.

- Florida HD-58 is a Dem seat where the incumbent was appointed to the DoD; he was unopposed in 2008 and got 69% in 2006, so it should be safe Dem. Also, the Dem primary for the special got nearly four times as many votes as the Republican one.
- Georgia HD-19 is a Rep seat, three Reps are running, no Dems. Yawn.

In Virginia HD-41 (occurring next week), pre-election campaign finance reports were filed today. Dem nominee Eileen Filler-Corn has raised three times the money that Rep nominee Kerry Bolognese has ($258k to $84k). Fundraising, of course, is somewhat disingenous a name, as most of the money in House of Delegates races comes from the party committees. Still, the fact that Democrats are going all in suggests they're more serious about holding the seat.

Granted, when the Republicans have a 61-38 majority in the House, they can afford to write off a seat.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

And Florida HD-58 is, unsurprisingly, a Dem hold. 65-35.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

VA HD-41 update: Since the 22nd, Eileen Filler-Corn has reported another $63k in last-minute donations over $1000 (including donations from her former boss, Sen. Mark Warner, and everyone's favorite ex-DNC chief Terry McAuliffe). Kerry Bolognese? $9k. I think this is a Dem hold at this point, which is not too surprising, since Bolognese was a pretty weak candidate who tried to ride the McDonnell wave last year.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

VA HD-41 today, as well as CT HD-120, which is a Republican seat in Stratford, but it really can't matter that much if the Democrats win it considering they hold 114 out of 151 seats.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

HD-41 is a Dem hold, although just barely. Eileen Filler-Corn won by 42 votes, or a 0.4% margin.

Edit: Also, the Republican held the seat in CT.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

HD-41 is a Dem hold, although just barely. Eileen Filler-Corn won by 42 votes, or a 0.4% margin.

Edit: Also, the Republican held the seat in CT.

Recount possible?

Electronic voting machines, recounts don't change anything. There have been two House races within 14-15 votes in the past year; both margins only changed by a couple of votes after recounts.