Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Missed this, but the six Republicans currently running in the Democratic recalls appear to have all gotten on the ballot. Also, the three placeholder Democrats who filed for the Republican recalls have dropped out.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Primary elections for the six Republican recalls are scheduled for July 12, with a general on August 9. Primary elections for the three Democratic recalls are scheduled for July 19, with a general on August 16. You can also look at the OP, where I've dumped all the information.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Wow, here's some news: State Rep. John Nygren has been struck from the ballot in the District 30 recall for having 2 fewer signatures than is needed. 400 is required, he had 424, and 26 were declared invalid. This has two ramifications: Sen. Dave Hansen will face a weaker candidate in the recall election (the recall organizer, David VanderLeest), and this will mean the general election takes place on July 19, as opposed to the other two Democratic recalls, which have been pushed off to August due to Republican primaries.

This is a pretty bush-league mistake: everyone knows you should get 1.5 times the required number of signatures to be safe.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Sounds about right.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Nygren is going to court over being bounced from the ballot.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The pre-primary fundraising reports for the Republican recalls are in:

District 2

Robert Cowles (R) - $101k raised, $62k on hand; $101k total raised this year
Nancy Nusbaum (D) - $177k raised, $134k on hand

District 8

Alberta Darling (R) - $536k raised, $401k on hand; $958k total raised this year
Sandy Pasch (D) - $431k raised, $216k on hand

District 10

Sheila Harsdorf (R) - $218k raised, $142k on hand; $328k total raised this year
Shelly Moore (D) - $238k raised, $92k on hand

District 14

Luther Olsen (R) - $72k raised, $71k on hand; $107k total raised this year
Fred Clark (D) - $226k raised, $163k on hand

District 18

Randy Hopper (R) - $25k raised, $92k on hand; $227k total raised this year
Jessica King (D) - $222k raised, $191k on hand

District 32

Dan Kapanke (R) - $63k raised, $124k on hand; $726k total raised this year
Jennifer Shilling (D) - $271k raised, $154k on hand

Hopper and Kapanke look like they've about given up. Makes me wonder about that PPP poll showing Hopper only behind by 3. Cowles and Olsen must not think they're in much danger.

Isaac Weix was the only fake Democrat to actually file a report. He raised $1,200, $750 of which was an in-kind from the Wisconsin Republican Party.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Milwaukee suburbs.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Yeah, so the primaries for the six Republican recalls are today.

Pre-primary fundraising reports are in for the three Democratic recalls. Here are the details.

District 12

Jim Holperin (D) - $338k raised, $148k on hand
Kim Simac (R) - $22k raised, $54k on hand
Robert Lussow (R) - $350 raised, $350 on hand

District 22

Robert Wirch (D) - $184k raised, $142k on hand
Jonathan Steitz (R) - $33k raised, $12k on hand
Fred Ekornaas (R) - $5k raised, $437 on hand

District 30

Dave Hansen (D) - $318k raised, $243k on hand
David VanderLeest (R) - no report in the article, but he appears to have raised about $3k.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Look at the OP.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Republicans targeted Moore to try to defeat her in the primary. Turnout was quite a bit higher in that district than in the others. Regardless, all the fake Dems lost.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A Dem poll puts Pasch one point ahead of Darling, 47-46.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The race appears to be about VanderLeest's history of domestic abuse rather than Hansen's record, so I'm not exactly surprised.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The primaries for the Holperin and Wirch recalls are today, as is the Hansen/VanderLeest general election. Turnout looks to be light for the former and pretty brisk for the latter; they're projecting 51% in Brown County for Hansen/VanderLeest, while in Kenosha County, primary turnout is expected to be in single-digits.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Polls close in 5 minutes, results link here.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Lussow is probably more electable in the 12th, but Simac has raised more money (I've heard her compared to Michele Bachmann, for what that's worth).

Steitz is the stronger candidate in the 22nd, in my opinion, since the other guy barely raised any money.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Steitz will win the nomination in the 22nd; he's leading 2-1 in Kenosha with 2/3rds of the precincts in.

Simac will probably win in the 12th, unless Lussow has some hidden strength in the counties that haven't reported yet (he's from one of them, Lincoln County).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Another Dem poll, this one has Fred Clark leading Luther Olsen 45-43 among all voters, 50-44 among likely voters, and 49-46 among "certain" voters.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The polls will be out tomorrow; Kos has teased them thusly:

"Got new Wisc polling. Big picture: Dems up big in one, up narrowly in two, trail by less than 5 in three. It's CLOSE. Need 3 to win"

Kapanke is down by 14, and Hopper is down by 3. I'm guessing Olsen is going to be down by 2-3, Darling is going to be ahead by 2-3, and Cowles is going to be ahead by 4-5.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Kim Simac, Republican challenger to Sen. Holperin, compared public education to the Nazis.

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[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a roundup of July campaign finance reports for next week's recalls.

District 2

Robert Cowles (R) - $64,825 raised, $29,826 spent, $98,817 on hand; $166,996 total raised
Nancy Nusbaum (D) - $61,808 raised, $91,658 spent, $104,333 on hand; $239,609 total raised

District 8

Alberta Darling (R) - $165,155 raised, $431,108 spent, $135,429 on hand; $1.1 million total raised
Sandy Pasch (D) - $190,865 raised, $343,399 spent, $63,943 on hand; $622,680 total raised

District 10

Sheila Harsdorf (R) - $106,448 raised, $151,068 spent, $97,343 on hand; $434,181 total raised
Shelly Moore (D) - $95,032 raised, $76,929 spent, $111,610 on hand; $335,038 total raised

District 14

Luther Olson (R) - $64,744 raised, $37,969 spent, $97,432 on hand; $171,856 total raised
Fred Clark (D) - $67,750 raised, $163,401 spent, $67,455 on hand; $294,251 total raised

District 18

Randy Hopper (R) - $106,103 raised, $3,463 spent, $195,564 on hand; $332,811 total raised
Jessica King (D) - $96,372 raised, $180,940 spent, $106,079 on hand; $318,154 total raised

District 32

Dan Kapanke (R) - raised (article doesn't say), $231,912 spent, $48,380 on hand; $882,381 total raised
Jennifer Shilling (D) - $61,270 raised, $171,828 spent, $80,089 on hand; $332,655 total raised

[JohnnyLongtorso]

PPP got the Hansen/Vanderleest race almost exactly right.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Some polls have come out from something called Insider Michigan Politics. No undecideds makes them look sketchy, but they don't look too out of line with the PPP polling:

District 12
Jim Holperin (D) - 53.7
Kim Simac (R) - 46.3

District 18
Jessica King (D) - 54.7
Randy Hopper (R) - 45.3

District 32
Jennifer Shilling (D) - 57.0
Dan Kapanke (R) - 43.0

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Their chances are pretty decent, actually. Dan Kapanke is toast, while Luther Olson and Randy Hopper are tossups that may be leaning slightly to the Democrats. The other three are probably going to hold on.

On the defense side, Wirch isn't going to have any trouble, and Holperin lucked out and got a nutter opponent, so he's probably favored.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Pretty unlikely, I'd say; it gets talked about a lot but rarely happens (Georgia and Texas were the only examples in the past decade).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Kapanke's district is pretty Democratic. I'm assuming he's been able to survive so far by keeping a low profile, but obviously that's over.

Kim Simac failed to appear at a debate. Holperin is seriously lucky to get such a flake of an opponent.