NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Meeker]

Given what's come in thus far, Murray is going to finish the day above 51%.

Nearly 45% of remaining ballots are from King County, which Murray won 67-33 today.

Time for Rossi to concede.

[Meeker]

The Seattle Times has officially called the race for Murray!  



http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2013349573_senate05m.html

The AP has as well.

[Meeker]

Larsen's lead in WA-02 has grown to 1,451 with all reporting done for the day. Yesterday he lead by 397. And San Juan County - which Larsen won 65-35 - didn't report today.

In short: Looks like Larsen's going to hold on.

[Meeker]

What's with the bizarrely low turnout in CA-47? The latest returns are:

Sanchez: 35,792
Tran: 29,996
Iglesias: 4,974

That's only about 70,000 votes. Vote-by-mail counting may be causing somewhat of a lag, yes, but all the neighboring districts report turnout at least double that and there's no reason why one district should experience such a lag and not the others.

[Meeker]

What's with the bizarrely low turnout in CA-47? The latest returns are:

Sanchez: 35,792
Tran: 29,996
Iglesias: 4,974

That's only about 70,000 votes. Vote-by-mail counting may be causing somewhat of a lag, yes, but all the neighboring districts report turnout at least double that and there's no reason why one district should experience such a lag and not the others.

That is what happens when you have a district with tons of folks who are not citizens.

Apparently so. This actually doesn't look that odd when you consider that only 75,619 votes were cast here in 2006.

[Meeker]

If Cooley ends up losing by a tiny margin, and since Mcnerney has more or less held on in his district, this election cycle will have been awesome.

But what chance is there really of Cooley losing? He is still ahead by 20,000 votes, and that margin is going to be hard to whittle down. She might be able to get it down below 10,000 but obviously that is not enough. The one statewide race where I actually cared whether the Democrat won, the Republican wins.

How many ballots are they left to count, my friend? Do you want to take a guess? It's over a million, yes a million!  You just gotta love our state; it is just such a blast. If you are a masochist, I suppose you could slap the ballots left to count numbers from here on to a spreadsheet, and do candidate splits based on the split in each county so far, and do a projection. Glancing at the sheet, maybe Cooley will pull it out, if he is running close in LA County. Is he?  I have not checked.

Addendum: The sheet does not reflect ballots that were counted and totals released on the afternoon of Nov 10 I see (I know that, because it says San Joaquin's last numbers were from Nov 8, and I know they released a count of a bunch of votes late yesterday afternoon (the ballots which put a stake into the heart of Harmer).

Here is a few days old version of such a spreadsheet: http://swingstateproject.com/diary/7991/caag-improvement-for-kamala

[Meeker]

You guys are at 239 right now. You'll win IL-08, NY-25 and TX-27. We'll take CA-11 and CA-20. NY-01 is up in the air.

[Meeker]

Bean concedes to Walsh.  Not surprised.  Leaves six races left.  Honestly, I think the only race left in the air is NY-1.  We're just biding time on the others.

http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/politics/bean-walsh-illinois-8th-district-108557139.html

Six?

CA-11, CA-20, TX-27, NY-01, NY-25 and...?

[Meeker]

I welcome any help on this spredsheet.  I seem to have one House Republican too many recorded.  

I'm assuming that CA-11, CA-20, and NY-1 end up Democratic and NY-25 and TX-27 end up in the GOP column.

Here is the spreadsheet:  http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_Elections_Cong_Gov.pdf

IN-03 is throwing you off. You're counting it as a pick-up.

[Meeker]

NY-25, CA-11 and CA-20 are over even if the AP won't call them for whatever reason. NY-01 is the only one truly still up in the air (and only barely so).