#FireBoehner

[Meeker]

Who would be some possibilities for those 16 votes?

Amash, Huelskamp, Schweikert, Jones and Gohmert are the five most likely suspects... I guess the next tier after that would be people like Jim Jordan, Mick Mulvaney, Tom McClintock and other rebellious members of the RSC: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Study_Committee

[Meeker]

So I looked it up, and the rule/precedent is that the speaker has to win a majority of votes cast for people. In 1997, for example, Gingrich was reelected Speaker with less than an absolute majority of the chamber, due to abstentions.

This means two things-

1. the hypothetical rebellious congressmen need to actually cast a vote for someone (Congressman or not), not just vote present, for this to work.
2. Democrats can more easily manipulate the election because they won't even need to vote for Boehner, they only have to abstain.

Edit, source: this CRS report

I'm not sure #1 is true. If enough GOP members vote present, then Pelosi receives more votes than Boehner and she is elected Speaker.

[Meeker]

So I looked it up, and the rule/precedent is that the speaker has to win a majority of votes cast for people. In 1997, for example, Gingrich was reelected Speaker with less than an absolute majority of the chamber, due to abstentions.

This means two things-

1. the hypothetical rebellious congressmen need to actually cast a vote for someone (Congressman or not), not just vote present, for this to work.
2. Democrats can more easily manipulate the election because they won't even need to vote for Boehner, they only have to abstain.

Edit, source: this CRS report

I'm not sure #1 is true. If enough GOP members vote present, then Pelosi receives more votes than Boehner and she is elected Speaker.

There's a pretty large gap there.  They'd need over 30 abstentions for that to be the case, while they'd only need 16 Republicans voting for someone else to gridlock it over and over until Boehner gives in.  The latter is far more likely.

I suppose voting present would require more votes, yes. And it doesn't create gridlock, it just elects Nancy Pelosi.