Polish Politics and Elections

[Walmart_shopper]

Szczecin and Gdansk are only about .5% or less off from their Round 1 numbers at this time. So certainly not overwhelming but not at all the kind of significant turnout drop that liberals were talking about earlier this morning (in those cities at least).

[Walmart_shopper]

Białystok (my old home, by the way), is down about .2% from Round 1. The city is marginally a PO city, but nothing like Lodz or Warsaw. So I am not sure what to make of that.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1282281710303027201

So that is probably somewhat good news for Rafał. But it isn't clear which demographics exactly are turning out, so who knows.

[Walmart_shopper]

Based on the distribution of the vote so far it does seem as though rural voters are likely fueling the turnout bump. But a lot of city people are in boutique resort towns on holiday and younger urban voters may indeed show up late as they usually do.

[Walmart_shopper]

So would I be correct to say that turnout reports look pretty good for Duda as of now?

Not really. He probably has a marginal edge just looking at the 1200 official numbers, but certain key PiS strongholds are down, anecdotally the cities woke up at about noon and are looking better now, and a lot of the rural turnout spike may come from urban voters on holiday in lake resorts. In other words, the turnout reports from 1200 are probably more likely to favor Duda than not, but even the picture from those reports is murky and the 1700 reports should clarify things some more.

[Walmart_shopper]

Gdansk 5pm turnout up more than 3% from Round 1

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout at 5pm was 58%, up almost 4% from Round 1. The cities have really started to turn out. It is going to be close.

Where are you getting the numbers from ?

PKW has no 5pm results yet.

And final 5pm numbers from round 1 were at 47.89% ...

I deleted it because it was a local turnout number and not a national one. National figures should be out any second.

[Walmart_shopper]

Walmart shopper, make sure you're not getting your info from the Kondominium Twitter account. That guy is infamous for s--tting up Polish Twitter with misinformation.

Haha okay. Yeah, he seems much more optimistic right now (he is anti-Duda) than others on Twitter. I take his word for it that trendlines are good for Rafał but the PiS people seem fairly confident, too. In any case it is clear that the cities picked up a lot after noon. A key PO bastion, Szczecin, is also up over 3% officially from Round 1.

I just think it will he very tight and anyone who feels confident one way or another is probably just wishcasting.

[Walmart_shopper]

Generally guys do not trust any "SEMI-OFFICIAL" information about turnout or results, they are most often bullsh**t.

I am just getting them from news accounts.

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout picked up a lot in PO-leaning Białstok, where turnout is just under 3% higher than round 1 as of 5pm. It will obviously be critical to see whether the rural areas are still seeing a turnout bump or whether this is the typical pattern of urban voters getting out of bed a lot later than rural voters (who are more likely to be going to Mass in the morning).

[Walmart_shopper]

Local 5pm reports are available, so I have no clue why the national number is still not out. In any case Warsaw turnout is up 3% from round 1 and Poznan is up 2%. One of the questions going into today was whether Rafał could push turnout even higher among his urban liberal base than round 1. The answer seems to be a pretty clear yes. But without seeing a full spectrum of turnout numbers from 5pm it is hard to say whether Duda is in serious trouble or not.

[Walmart_shopper]

The aforementioned Marcin Palade seems to think that Duda is leading early exits by a more comfortable margin. It wouldn't surprise me if it ends up this way, but it's hard to deny that turnout patterns and trends have been more and more encouraging to Rafał as the day has gone on.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcinPalade/status/1282345374720688130

[Walmart_shopper]

Change in turnout seems to be very high in rural areas

https://twitter.com/MarcinPalade/status/1282364824446525440

<5000 inhabitants
...
>500.000

The dark red in the northeast is Poland's lake country, with various boutique villages in which people have cabins, homes, boats, etc. The southern red splotch is a giant national park. You are seeing the biggest increases among all of these tiny summer resort towns.

In any case, a 3% increase in a big city is vastly better than a 10% increase in a podunk lake town if you are trying to rack up votes.

[Walmart_shopper]

Duda is done. I am just going to call it even at the risk of (again) getting egg all over my face.

[Walmart_shopper]

Exit poll has Duda ahead 50.4-49.6

This is without foreign votes, which are expected to favor Rafał by a lot. So it could end up basically tied, alas.

[Walmart_shopper]

Would the exit poll model in votes abroad or not?

No. It is also missing late votes that were heavily urban. I wouldn't be surprised to see the late exit poll have exactly the opposite numbers.

[Walmart_shopper]

Would the exit poll model in votes abroad or not?

No. It is also missing late votes that were heavily urban. I wouldn't be surprised to see the late exit poll have exactly the opposite numbers.

It's over, stop saying stupid things.

Buckle up.

[Walmart_shopper]

TVP quoted DLA poll with 51.9 for Duda, not sure if that is exit poll or not.

I would have thought TVP would have tried harder than that.

[Walmart_shopper]

OK, I decided not to watch candidates' speeches, but from what I've heard Duda outright proclaimed victory, while Trzaskowski said he believes his side will prevail at the final count. Can anybody correct me?

Dude invited Trzaskowski to the presidential palace tonight. I find that somewhat weird.

[Walmart_shopper]

In the first round Duda outperformed the IPSOS exit poll by ~2%.

He also underperformed his exits by about 2% in 2015. It is going to be a long night and probably week.