2012 Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

I wonder if the SPD might gain some ground once they settle on a candidate for Chancellor?

Likely, but they're certainly not going to gain over 10%. They're still going to face what they least want....being junior partner.

[Franzl]

Breaking News: Peer Steinbrück will be the SPD's candidate for chancellor.

[Franzl]

SPD should be open to a coalition with Pirates...

At this point, I doubt the Pirates even get in.

[Franzl]

I think I'm still voting CDU...but I'm willing to listen to Steinbrück.

[Franzl]

Interesting

[Franzl]

Am I right in assuming that this'll be Merkel's last election? By the next election, it'll be what? 12 years?

Yes, but Kohl managed 16

[Franzl]

What would be the biggest differences between the current CDU/FDP government where the CDU has the vast majority of the power - and a likely new "grand coalition" where the SPD would have to be given close to half of the cabinet portfolios?

Likely very little difference, perhaps a bit more competence, but the fundamentals of Steinbrücks SPD is not far from CDU policies.

[Franzl]

Glad to see finally the Pirates are beneath the threshold to enter Parliament. It can be fun to play an episode of My Little Pony in the Parliament of Berlin Land (genuine !), but the Bundestag is another thing... Also, a number of voters getting away from the Pirates come back to Die Linke (albeit maybe more were from the Greens or SPD).

I would be quite surprised if the Pirates made it into the Bundestag at this point.

[Franzl]

Which party benefits most from the decline of the Pirates? In other words where are their former supporters migrating to?

That depends a good deal on where. Non-voters would be my best guess, on average. But from other parties....Greens I'd say. Perhaps the Left in certain locations.

[Franzl]

The CSU is close to 50% again in Bavaria, says a new Emnid poll for "Focus":

48% CSU
21% SPD
10% Greens
  8% FW
  4% FDP
  4% Pirates
  5% Others

Seehofer (CSU) defeats Ude (SPD) by 51-35 in the PM direct vote.

CSU absolute majority again? Wow.

[Franzl]

I would vote SPD in Bayern this election, actually. Surprised Ude hasn't at least improved their numbers a tad...

[Franzl]

I would vote SPD in Bayern this election, actually. Surprised Ude hasn't at least improved their numbers a tad...

They were around 16% before he was announced as their leading-candidate for the election, if I remember correctly.  Lmao at the Texas of Germany.

Not really comparable as Bayern ranks highly in most indicators. Education, income, quality of life, etc.

[Franzl]

Greens won the Stuttgart mayoral run-off election with 52.9% against a CDU-supported independent on Sunday.

[Franzl]

New federal Bundestag poll from Emnid (percentages indicate gain or loss to last election):

CDU/CSU: 38% (+4)
SPD: 29% (+6)
Greens: 12% (+1)
Left: 7% (-5)
Pirates: 6% (+4)
-------------------
FDP: 4% (-11)

Government CDU/CSU + FDP (not represented): 38%
Opposition: 54%

Red-Green: 41%

[Franzl]

New state level poll from Berlin (Forsa):

CDU 27% (+4)
SPD 26% (-2)
Grüne 19% (+1)
Linke 10 (-2)
Piraten 10 (+1)

FDP apparently listed under "others". (I imagine they're not over 1-2% or so....so yeah.)

[Franzl]

Just a question, is there a major Eurosceptic party in Germany, as in the UK?

None with any chance of breaking 5%.

[Franzl]

Must be nice to be Angela Merkel right now. Just like in 2009, there's not (yet) any serious way she would lose her office, regardless of coalition.

[Franzl]

Can the Greens, SDP, the Left and the FDP form a coalition?

Mitt Romney was more likely to win Vermont.

[Franzl]

3 opinion polls have come out in the last week:

                            Emnid                   FGW                    Forsa

CDU/CSU               39                        39                         39
SPD                       28                        30                         26
Grüne                    13                        13                         14
Linke                      7                          6                           8
Piraten                   5                          4                           4
FDP                        4                          4                           4
     

[Franzl]

It will be interesting to see if FDP supporters turn out a bit more if they think they'll lose all of their representation.

I don't think the FDP's problem is that its supporters aren't turning out...

[Franzl]

New Infratest Dimap Bundestag opinion poll:

CDU/CSU 40%
SPD 30%
Grüne 14%
Linke 6%
----------------
Piraten 4%
FDP 4%
others 2%


Government: CDU/CSU (40) + FDP (0) = 40%
Opposition: SPD (30) + Grüne (14) + Linke (6) = 50%

Or counting those parties under 5%: Government 44, Opposition 56 (as a share of the pure vote)


Also interesting, they show both West and East Germany:

West:
CDU/CSU 41%
SPD 31%
Grüne 15%
Piraten 4%
FDP 4%
Linke 3%
others 2%

East:
CDU 37%
SPD 26%
Linke 17%
Grüne 10%
Piraten 4%
FDP 3%
others 3%

[Franzl]

I'm guessing Steinbruck will hold the jobs he had in Merkel's first term: finance minister and vice-chancellor.

Which was....and will be.....a rather good government, actually.

[Franzl]

God, the German party system is really broken.

All paths lead to Merkel!

The sooner you admit that......

[Franzl]

I'm guessing Steinbruck will hold the jobs he had in Merkel's first term: finance minister and vice-chancellor.

Steinbrück wasn't vice-chancellor.

Yeah, it was the other stone.

[Franzl]

New Bundestag poll from Emnid:

CDU/CSU 38%
SPD 29%
Grüne 15%
Linke 7%

FDP 4%
Piraten 4%
others 3%


Among those parties that would make it in: Government 38, Opposition 51

Among all: Government 42, Opposition 58


Coalitions with a majority:

CDU/CSU-Greens
SPD-Greens-Left
CDU/CSU-SPD