but my default rating would be at least an 80% chance for the DEM to win.
That's just ridiculous. What is that based on? It will be a midterm year and if the Dems nominate someone like Schwartz, they most certainly don't have more than a 50-50 shot.
Pennsylvania of 2010 is certainly not likely to be the Pennsylvania of 2008. I think people are making a huge mistake in basically labeling us a safe Dem state. You want to say that any Dem has a 60% shot at the seat? Fine. I'll still strongly disagree but that's a lot more reasonable than 80%!
I dunno if it's really 80%....but it seems incredibly likely.
Concerning the bolded part...it just seems like this cycle continues every 2 years. No way the PA of 2006 will be the PA of 2004....no way the PA of 2008 will be the PA of 2006, no way the PA of 2008 will be the PA of 2010....etc.
I won't bet on it....but we'll speak again about this day after Election Day, 2010