UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[CumbrianLefty]

The petition to revoke A50 has just passed 6 million signatures.

[CumbrianLefty]

The petition to revoke A50 has just passed 6 million signatures.

I guess a new vote should be held if it gets 17,410,743 real signatures.

This really isn't the killer point that people like you imagine it is.

[CumbrianLefty]

It had a question mark attached, or did you miss that?

[CumbrianLefty]

Somewhat curious where you get that impression from, given what is happening in the HoC right now.

[CumbrianLefty]

I thought for sure Customs Union and Common Market 2.0 would pass ... what happened  ?

Chuka and his CHUKS de facto voted for no deal. Ditto several LibDems and Caroline Lucas.

We now have inflexible remainer extremism to go along with the ERG/UKIP variety.

Oh joy.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think they should leave on No Deal. That’s what the people voted for

Why even bother making such a comment that is so staggeringly ignorant in every way?

[CumbrianLefty]

Well with both the Tories and most of the media having portrayed him as the personification of evil since September 2015, any actually taking Corbyn seriously takes some getting used to

[CumbrianLefty]

Second minister (Chris Heaton Harris) quits over the May "offer".

[CumbrianLefty]

Cooper amendment passes its third reading by a single vote.

Now the Lords.......

[CumbrianLefty]

The question that Leavers are cherry-picking is "And if Britain has not agreed a deal by April 12th
and the European Union refused to grant a further extension, what do you think should happen?" to which the answer was No Deal 44%, Remain 42%, Don't Know 13%.  Note that this is in the context of the EU refusing to grant an extension.

Replying with "don't know" is the equivalent of not voting; i.e. those people don't count.

That isn't my objection.  My objection is to the fact that people who are making a fuss about this are ignoring the framing and the context of the question; this is Opinion Polling 101: these things matter.

Exactly, this was close to push polling.

Another poll from YouGov since, using different wording, shows "support" for no deal significantly lower.

[CumbrianLefty]

June 30 is a typical May "compromise" which satisfies neither side really.

Unless we no deal in the next week or two (increasingly unlikely) the UK is very likely staying in until at least the end of this year.

[CumbrianLefty]

The talks between the PM and Labour seem to have collapsed.

May totally inflexible in all significant respects apparently, still clinging to her near dead "deal".

For how long, O lord, how long??

[CumbrianLefty]

We're of course just getting the Labour PoV from this. Not surprised May can't make any meaningful compromise; well over half her party would never back it.

The accounts of her reading from a pre-prepared script sound depressingly believable, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

Thank you for letting us know this, we had no idea.

[CumbrianLefty]

I doubt it will be a year; six months might end up being the compromise.

Until the start of 2020 possibly?

[CumbrianLefty]

Macron posturing, you say?

How very unlike him.

[CumbrianLefty]

So the EU elections here might be for less than six months, even more pointless than I thought.

Thanks for that, Macron.

Big whoop.

[CumbrianLefty]

That may well be one of Macron's motivations, but since it seems most other EU states did not agree with him it is a bit of a moot point. What if we ask for another extension as Halloween approaches? Or even have another referendum and vote to stay after all??

[CumbrianLefty]

Oh and the thread title can be changed (again) now.......

[CumbrianLefty]

With the pressure suddenly all gone, it seems like nothing important happens with regard to Brexit now. A EP election campaign is slowly starting with the bizarre backdrop that it's not 100% certain that this election will actually occur (although I'd say chances for that are certainly higher than 50%). So, are they gonna those six months now to gradually come to the conclusion to hold a second referendun?

More than 90% if not 99% I would say. The only way they wouldn't is if May's deal was passed before then and we thus exited the EU - but what reason would any of those who haven't backed it thus far have to change their minds?

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/video-reveals-mp-richard-burgon-did-make-antizionist-tirade-a4119251.html

Richard Burgon establishing himself as favourite to be next Labour leader

Heh, you wish.

[CumbrianLefty]

It appears to be yet another push poll mind, so modified joy.

[CumbrianLefty]

I note that "Brexit Express" did not leak its EU referendum figures: Remain 58, Leave 42.

Or indeed the Euro election poll ComRes also did for them - which had Labour well in front with 33% (just as in their GE survey) and the Brexit Party trailing in 3rd......

[CumbrianLefty]

And because by no means all remain voters identify that as their sole raison'd'etre.

Its a now often forgotten reality that in the months immediately after the 2016 referendum some sort of "soft" Brexit would have easily passed through parliament, and been mostly accepted by voters, had the government had the sense to decide that was the best way forward.

Instead, our PM - influenced by siren voices like "vagina monologues" Dacre and Tim Nickothy - decided that offering unattainable unicorns was the way to go. With all the consequences that have unfolded since.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its not as simple as you make out either, though May is being deeply disingenuous obviously.