UK local by-elections, 2024

[CumbrianLefty]

What a very strange affair in Dorset all round.

[CumbrianLefty]

Looking ridiculous has never stopped them up to now, mind.

[CumbrianLefty]

There are actually two Aldermanic elections for the City of London next week, but both unopposed.

[CumbrianLefty]

As asked elsewhere, how many of those 50 voters were the same people each time.

[CumbrianLefty]

Um, Earth calling Crewe?

Apparently the Tory candidate made no mention of his party affiliation in his campaign materials, though it will of course have been on the ballot paper. Labour also lost a seat to the Tories in the town last May, so there may be some underlying issue.

Similar campaigning tactics to what won the Tories a seat in Hackney last month.

The council was controversial when it was Tory led before last year's election, and remains so as one that is Labour led now. Indeed the council leader himself is under investigation for misconduct.

[CumbrianLefty]

Briton Ferry was the first Labour local byelection gain of 2024.

[CumbrianLefty]

In reality, the "new" Indy in Bucks was slightly down on last time when they took 1 of the 3 seats.

[CumbrianLefty]

I’d even suggest that in the fabled “Canada 1993” outcome Berwickshire et al might be one of the survivors.

Note that the two survivors in 1993 were not ones that one would guess generically. Charest's majority at Sherbrooke was very large in 1988 but then this was true of many other provincial ridings in Quebec that year and it had only a very weak PC history before 1984, while the PC majority at Saint John in 1988 was only 4.5pts: Wayne actually increased the PC majority there amidst complete national collapse in 1993!

Looking forward to the two Tory seats being Leicester East and Harrow East.

Well, one of them being a *gain* would be a true "chef's kiss" moment

[CumbrianLefty]

Surprisingly strong Tory result - and unexpected gain - in one of the Horsham contests.

(which was apparently, and really not as surprisingly, partly motivated by Nimbyism)

[CumbrianLefty]

Two votes <snicker>

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour can overall be pleased with this week's results, despite the Hillhead loss - which still saw them increasing their vote in line with most recent Scottish byelections.

Greens might have hoped for slightly better in the Lewisham mayoral election? Looks like the LibDems (who fielded a veteran campaigner) might have stolen a bit of their thunder.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour can overall be pleased with this week's results, despite the Hillhead loss - which still saw them increasing their vote in line with most recent Scottish byelections.

Greens might have hoped for slightly better in the Lewisham mayoral election? Looks like the LibDems (who fielded a veteran campaigner) might have stolen a bit of their thunder.

WPBG got 5% too- I think they focused on Gaza.

Was the thinking behind having mayors in places like Lewisham that Labour will basically always win a top two vote system even if they end up seeing their councillors lose to various different parties?

After polls closed, their candidate said something to the effect of "anybody voting for the main parties supported genocide" - such a charming bunch eh.

[CumbrianLefty]

Just a minor quibble - the percentages in Lancaster add up to 100.4% I think?

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't think that is a statement he "won't be posting" on the coming byelections - just that there are not as many of them in the run up to May, as is quite normal. Though having said that there are a few even on the previous Thursday (April 25) which hasn't always been the case in recent years.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tories hold one seat, and almost another, despite big drops in their vote due to evenly split opposition.

[CumbrianLefty]

Good result for Labour in the misnamed Neath ward - new Welsh leader bounce?

[CumbrianLefty]

Good result for Labour in the misnamed Neath ward - new Welsh leader bounce?

Given Labour had an exceptionally bad result in NPT in 2022 losing the council for the first time since the 70s, I don't think it says as much. They're starting from a very low base in spite of the 2022 national environment.

There were a couple of byelections for NPT earlier this year - Labour did OK in one gaining it from an Indy, but in the other they fell back further as an Independent took a previous Plaid Cymru seat.

[CumbrianLefty]

Good result for the Tories in Northants, though they had a similarly strong hold in Rushden around a year ago. Didn't tell us much about the parliamentary byelection containing the town earlier this year.

[CumbrianLefty]

but can the SNP finally win a local by-election?

That'll be a no then.

And quite strikingly so!

[CumbrianLefty]

You do know that certain Twitter accounts with Corbynist avatars will be saying that totally seriously?

(one of the most hilarious, which I only stumbled upon recently, is predicting "up to 200 independent left MPs" after the next GE with not just a totally straight face but approaching religious fervour)

[CumbrianLefty]

I think recent Scottish local byelections have pretty accurately shown the SNP's decline from previous electoral domination, but I do still suspect they show the Tories doing a bit better than they are likely to in a Westminster election - where Sunak's mob are currently no better regarded than in England.

[CumbrianLefty]

(Yes, that's a joint candidate between Plaid Cymru and the Greens; this arrangement already existed in 2022.)

Plaid Cymru/Green alliances and electoral deals go back to the early 1990s, with mixed results.

[CumbrianLefty]

Quick rundown for local byelections on 2nd May in those areas that did not have council elections on at the same time - they are grouped by the defending party (Tories/Lab/LibDem/Green in that order)

Amber Valley DC, Crich and South Wingfield - C hold
Bournemouth/Christchurch/Poole UA, Canford Cliffs - C hold
Bromley UA, Shortlands and Park Langley - C hold
Camden UA, Frognal - C hold
Croydon UA, Park Hill and Whitgift - C hold
E Devon DC, Exmouth Brixington - C hold
Essex CC, Harlow SE - C hold
Hampshire CC, Fareham Salisbury - C hold
Hampshire CC, Meon Valley - Grn gain from C
Hillingdon UA, Hillingdon E - C hold
Huntingdonshire DC, Great Paxton - LD gain from C
Kensington and Chelsea UA, Norland - C hold
Leicestershire CC, Burbage - LD gain from C
S Derbyshire DC, Melbourne - C hold
S Norfolk DC, Bunwell - Grn gain from C
Worcestershire CC, Evesham NW - C hold

Birmingham UA, Bournbrook and Selly Park - Lab hold
Brighton and Hove UA, Kemptown - Lab hold
Brighton and Hove UA, Queens Park - Lab hold
Broxtowe DC, Attleborough and Chilwell E - Lab hold
Charnwood DC, Loughborough E - Lab hold
Chester W and Chester UA, Wolverham - Lab hold
Croydon UA, Woodside - Lab hold
Durham UA, Horden - Lab hold
Hackney UA, de Beauvoir - Lab hold
Hackney UA, Hoxton E and Shoreditch - Lab hold
Hounslow UA, Brentford W - Lab hold
Islington UA, Hillrise - Lab hold
Lambeth UA, Knights Hill - Lab hold
Lambeth UA, Streatham Common and Vale - Lab hold
Lancaster DC, Carnforth and Millhead - Lab hold
Lewisham UA, Deptford - Lab hold
Lincolnshire CC, Park - Lab hold
NW Leicestershire DC, Snibston S - Lab hold
S Gloucestershire UA, New Cheltenham - Lab hold
Stoke on Trent UA, Meir N - Lab hold
Sutton UA, St Helier W - C gain from Lab
Wandsworth UA, W Putney - C gain from Lab
Warwick DC, Leamington Clarendon - Lab hold

Bedford UA, Riverfield - LD hold
Breckland DC, Hermitage - C gain from LD
Somerset UA, Mendip S - LD hold
Teignbridge DC, Ashburton and Buckfastleigh - LD hold
Waverley DC, Witley and Milford., LD hold
W Devon DC, Tavistock N - LD hold
Westmorland and Furness UA, Grange and Cartmel - LD hold

Mid Suffolk DC, Chilton - Grn hold
Torridge DC, Bideford N - LD gain from Grn

Phew

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently the Wandsworth result was significantly down to a specific local (planning) issue - perhaps we shouldn't read too much into it regarding Labour's chances of re-election in 2026.

[CumbrianLefty]

The "immoral" Labour gain here compensates for their "immoral" loss in Hillhead recently.