More on a Hillary Comback [Michael Barone does the delegate math]

[Ogre Mage]

A major problem I see for Obama in Pennsylvania is that it is a closed Democratic Primary -- no independents allowed.  That cuts off an important part of his coalition.  Hillary is stronger among self-identified Democrats.  Given that the demographics of the state favor her and Gov. Rendell will be running his machine for her she has to feel good about her chances.  Whatever happens with the state delegate count, a strong victory in a key state like Pennsylvania will definitely be noticed by the Super Delegates.

[Ogre Mage]

In Texas, I think a key question will be to what degree can Obama use the caucuses to cut into Clinton's likely strong victory in the primary.  He has been very successful in the past.  But he will be attempting to do so in very difficult terrain -- the demographics of the state run against him and Clinton has deep roots in Texas, ranging back to 1972 when she helped organize George McGovern's Presidential campaign in the state.  For Clinton, the challenge will be trying to get all those Latinos and rural whites who will likely vote for her in the primary to show up at the caucus that evening. 

While it is extremely unlikely that Obama can win in the popular vote here, it is quite possible that he may be to deny Clinton a significant delegate pickup.  If the delegates awarded are out of whack with the popular vote due to Texas's bizarre system, it is hard to say how the Super Delegates would view the contest.