I'm curious, what makes you think she could actually be chosen? You think we would have seen some signs that Obama was at least open to the idea by now... but that hasn't been the case.
Long post coming --
--The claim that Hillary has no chance of being selected has primarily been coming from individuals peripherally affiliated with the Obama campaign, anonymous sources within the Clinton and Obama campaigns and the Chattering Class. Much of this is rumor, projection, and smokescreen. I don't doubt there are many in the Obama campaign opposed to her selection, however, we really do not know what Obama and his true inner circle are thinking. Obama and Clinton have given the press the slip before -- when they snuck away to meet at Diane Feinstein's house. We still don't know what was discussed at that meeting.
--Obama's poll numbers peaked in June -- the month Hillary dropped out and endorsed him. Since then they have slowly eroded. Arguably he is still slightly ahead but in this political environment largely favoring Democrats he is running behind the party brand. As Lanny Davis noted in his editorial for the WSJ, multiple polls show Clinton giving Obama a significant boost at the national level -- the only running mate to do so. Clinton comfortably won the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida and at the time she dropped out her poll numbers against McCain were notably stronger than Obama's in those states. In Michigan,
an EPIC/MRI poll showed Obama performing much more strongly against McCain with Clinton at the bottom of the ticket. What other choice could provide such a critical, multi-state boost?
--As the race has tightened up, approximately 20-25% of Clinton supporters continue to hold out. Given the number of votes she won in the primary this is not insignificant. Obama is
underperforming with
white women over 40 -- a demographic which consistently votes and Hillary won handily during the primaries. Surely the Obama campaign is aware of all this.
--Clinton is the preferred VP choice of party insiders.
Per the National Journal, when CBS/NYT asked 970 Democratic delegates who Obama should choose to share the ticket with him, 28 percent said Clinton, while Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden came in second among named candidates with just 6 percent. There was much less consensus among delegates pledged to Obama; overwhelming support from delegates pledged to Clinton helped give her that overall edge. That said, 61 percent of all delegates and 35 percent of those pledged to Obama were willing to say that Clinton's selection as vice president would prove helpful to Obama, while just 13 percent overall argued that it would hurt him. Among just the superdelegates the numbers were similar -- 56 percent say she would help, 11 percent say she would hurt Obama’s chances. The rest are undecided or don’t think her candidacy would affect his chances of victory in November.
--Conventional wisdom has generally been to roll out the running mate a week or so ahead of the convention so the public and press can have a "getting to know you" period with the individual. Obama, for whatever reason, has chosen to cut that short. This suggests that someone with at least somewhat of a national reputation such as Bayh or Biden is more likely than, say, Kaine or Sebelius. But there is one person who would need no introduction -- Hillary Clinton.
--I can think of two reasons why Team Obama would want to keep a potential Hillary selection under wraps. First, the more unlikely it seems, the greater the catharsis if it happens. They will dominate the news cycle for the forseeable future. Second, it would be interesting to see how the McCain campaign would respond to such a curveball. Ideally, it would have a derailing effect on the Straight Talk Express.
I am not saying OMGHILLARYISTHECHOICE4SURE!, but it is useless trying to sort through the smokescreen and head fakes which are currently being played out. One can only look at the data and political environment and make an educated guess about who would be the strongest choice. Perhaps Obama's internal polling is telling him something completely different, but we have no way of knowing.
