Start with this base:
Obama wins everything that Gore does except PA, and wins NH and VA.
Republicans get 282 EV.
You could actually add CO to Obama, and McCain still wins.
yeah, we can all do the math. The question is, can Obama actually pull out a victory in VA and manage to lose PA. Are the votes he is going to have
to gain in VA in order to win it that different from the voters in PA he is going to have to lose in order to not win in PA.
Frankly, it's probably more likely he wins PA and loses CO and NM, maybe even NH, if only because the states are more different. Maybe you can see Obama
dominating NoVa enough to carry VA and yet losing PA. Seems most people think OH will go Obama before VA does.
How about this for an election night decision. Whoever wins 3 of MI, PA, VA, OH and FL wins the election. Not perfect, but hard for either to win without 3
of those states, methinks.