Alberta (Canada) UCP leadership race

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It's been a wild ride for Danielle Smith. Three years ago she was writing a column praising Rachel Notley and the NDP government and now she's a hard right-wing candidate again. She's seeking to unseat the UCP incumbent in the riding immediately south of her old one, so who knows how that nomination will turn out.

Toews and his low-key campaign feel like weird fits for the mood of a party that just ran out Jason Kenney, but he seems like the only serious candidate left of Brian Jean. If the many right-wing contenders keep screeching about Alberta sovereignty, presumably that's good for Toews.

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Extremely bellicose speech from Danielle Smith, which is funny for those of us who remember just three years ago when she all but endorsed the NDP. Biggest cheers of the night for the anti-vaccine portion of her speech, which is a reminder that that was a big issue in this campaign.

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Keep in mind that Smith doesn't have a seat in the legislature. With her relatively close margin of victory, I think she'll have a hard time pushing caucus to table a sovereignty act while she's on the outside. She's said that she will run for a by-election, but I could also see an early election at this point.

The UCP MLA in in Calgary-Elbow has resigned, a riding the NDP has a good chance to pick up and have something of a star candidate, Samir Kayande, an analyst at the Pembina Institute and a former oil and gas company executive.

Danielle Smith has already said that she won't call a byelection in this riding, but wants to run in a byelection in Southern Alberta, but not in Calgary-Elbow, even though she lived in Calgary for years and was even briefly a Calgary school trustee before getting the entire school board fired.

The tradition is for major parties to step down when a leader is seeking a seat, but in today's climate, I can't see that tradition being held, least of all by the ABNDP for Danielle Smith in a winnable riding. And I don't think Danielle Smith would risk her first act as premier being a by-election loss.

I am not aware of this tradition. All parties contested the Calgary-Lougheed by-election in 2017 when Jason Kenney sought a seat. All parties contested the Calgary-Foothills by-election in 2014 when Jim Prentice sought a seat. All parties contested the Edmonton-McClung by-election in 1998 when Nancy MacBeth sought a seat. All parties contested the Edmonton-Whitemud by-election in 1985 when Don Getty sought a seat.

That is every time in Alberta since the end of the Second World War that either the premier or the leader of the opposition has sought to enter the legislature. At none of those elections did any party represented in the legislature fail to nominate a candidate.

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The point that Danielle Smith hammered repeatedly in her speech last night was "the NDP-Liberal alliance" in Ottawa. I think that that's a really strong line of attack; the federal government is quite unpopular and the federal NDP is committed to never opposing it in any way. Now that the Alberta Liberal Party is truly dead, the NDP is the only party in the province with any connection to the government. The fact that the NDP has been in power already and Rachel Notley is a well-known figure makes this tougher for the UCP than it would be otherwise, but if they manage to pull it off next year I think this will be why.