2012 Elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

Schleswig-Holstein poll (Infratest dimap, 04/12)

CDU 32%
SPD 32%
Greens 12%
Pirates 11%
SSW 4%
FDP 4%
Left 3%

Pirate surge prevents SPD/Green majority. Looks like a Grand coalition to me.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Pirates really are an absolute disease.

Do they refuse to work with left-wingers?

For the time being, "left-wingers" are probably refusing to work with them.

The SPD likes to play it safe. To enter a coalition with a newly formed party who is still trying to find positions on a lot of issues and hence is undergoing constant changes means taking a risk. On the other hand, entering a coalition with the CDU isn't much risky at all.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Northrhine-Westphalia (INFO GmbH, 04/14)

SPD 40%
CDU 29%
Pirates 11%
Greens 10%
FDP 3%
Left 3%

Pirate-mentum continues, FDP's Lindner-mentum starts to fade, SPD/Greens still have a majority thanks to the SPD's Kraft-mentum.

[Middle-aged Europe]

For the past ten years, Wolfgang Kubicki has said in every interview that most of what the FDP federal leadership does is total bullsh**t. Hence his high credibility.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The CDU's prime ministerial candidate for NRW, Norbert Röttgen, has lost his cool and started to turn into a Joe Biden gaffe machine. The CDU's campaign is desintegrating and Merkel has probably checked it off as a loss already.

Oh, well, here's the latest poll (YouGov, 05/09)
SPD 37%
CDU 30%
Greens 12%
Pirates 8.5%
FDP 6%
Left 3.5%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Kurt Beck won't be chancellor-candidate, ever. In 2009, he didn't run because he had been toppled as party chairman the year before. (Also, he isn't resigning yet since he already denied those rumours.)

Regarding Hannelore Kraft: 2013 is too early, because it will be Steinmeier's (again), Steinbrück's or Gabriel's turn then. 2017 wouldn't be too far-fetched though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, there's always a *chance*. It's just below 50%. (Definitely below 20% too.)

Not really a left-winger per se, although certainly more left-wing than Schröder.

[Middle-aged Europe]

^^

The SSW's colour is blue, actually. So it's a Red-Blue-Green traffic light.

Sometimes they start to refer to any coalition which consists of three parties as "traffic light"... which doesn't really makes sense, but that's the way it is.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Final NRW poll (INFO GmbH, 11/05)

SPD 38%
CDU 33%
Greens 11%
Pirates 8%
FDP 5%
Left 4%

As with any other NRW poll, it was conducted prior to Norbert Röttgen's "In my opinion I should in fact become prime minister. Regrettebly, the CDU doesn't decide this, but the voters do."

So the CDU could still end up with less than 30% after all.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Random fact: Northrhine-Westphalia covers about the same area as Maryland, but has a population comparable to that of Florida. As such, NRW has a higher population density than any state in the U.S.

(Population-wise it's also larger than Austria and Switzerland combined.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Seriously, how bad a result is North Rhine-Westphalia for Angela Merkel moving forward into 2013? Any other major electoral tests coming up between now and the federal elections? Is it a potential sign of things to come?

The CDU had a sh**tty candidate who ran sh**tty campaign. Just the opposite of the FDP, actually. In other state elections, the CDU may have better candidates.

But to answer your question: There's the Lower Saxony state election on January 20, 2013. That's all there is if you disregard the mostly insignificant Schleswig-Holstein local elections which will also be held sometime early next year.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hannelore Kraft (SPD) and Christian Lindner (FDP) are considered authentic and/or likeable. Norbert Röttgen (CDU) is an epic fail as a candidate and a campaigner. Sylvia Löhrmann (Greens) was overshadowed by Kraft and reduced to the role of the sidekick.

Guess what happens when a weak challenger faces a popular incumbent?

[Middle-aged Europe]

This is really, really funny.

Anyways, Nazis are not welcome here so please fyck off, whoever you are.

im assuming you mean me and im not a nazis, im not even a nationalist actually i consider myself to be an anarchist.  I merely want the election results for the PRNW and NPD cause i blog about the far right.  this is all one word of course but i cant post links yet, european nationalism . blogspot . com   to prove my point.  but hey, im glad you dont like nazis \m/

You also happen to use the "Golden Dawn" logo as your picture/avatar in your blogger.com profile.

So you're a Nazi and a liar then.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Leave the nazi alone,nature already insulted him enough by letting him live.


Anyway,sweet results. Even Germans start to openly criticize Merkel's agenda...

While German citizens have "openly criticized" Merkel's agenda for quite some time now (but often more in a "none of our tax money for lazy Greeks!" way), the federal government's policies played only a very minor role in the Northrhine-Westphalia election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Where are you all getting this idea that this has anything to do with Merkel's agenda. It has very little relevance in this state election. The partly leaders in NRW were the most important factor.

Mostly foreign press, probably.

Headlines on BBC's news site currently include "State election deals blow to Germany's Merkel",  "NRW election: Merkel shaken at state poll" and "NRW election: Merkel admits 'bitter' defeat".

Who gives a f**k about trivial German state-level issue and the popularity of Hannelore Kraft (someone who's almost completely unknown outside Germany's borders), when it can be made into something much much bigger. Like Angela Merkel.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The most interesting fallout from the NRW election is that Oskar Lafontaine is making a play for return to chairmanship of the Left Party now. His plans for a power-grab is meeting with resistance from the eastern state chapters of the party though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

"Das können Sie alles senden!"

Horst Seehofer (CSU), Prime Minister of Bavaria, didn't mince his words and was surprisingly direct and sincere about the problems of the governing coalition and the defeat in NRW. He's probably not going to help the coalition, but he may have scored some points on a personal level.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CS3qyx8drQk

(only in German)

The interesting thing is that it wasn't part of the interview, but more of a private chat with the reporter after the interview. At the end, the reporter commented on how this talk was much more interesting than the interview itself which then led to Seehofer's: "You can air it all!"

[Middle-aged Europe]

The most interesting fallout from the NRW election is that Oskar Lafontaine is making a play for return to chairmanship of the Left Party now. His plans for a power-grab is meeting with resistance from the eastern state chapters of the party though.

Is it possible that he and the others in die Linke who split from the SPD might leave and rejoin to help push the SPD left?  Or would it look too much like political opportunism?  Or are the scars just too deep?

Doubt that the SPD would want to have him back. He "betrayed" the party once (or twice, if you count 1999) und you can't trust a traitor (although he'd probably say that the party betrayed him).

And I suppose Lafontaine wouldn't want to return to the SPD unless he becomes party chairman and/or chancellor-candidate for 2013. Not gonna happen.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Angela Merkel has fired Norbert Röttgen as minister for environment today.

How ironic, because he was too afraid to take any risks in the NRW election campaign he ultimately lost everything.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Possibly stupid question, but if the next election offered a possible majority for CDU-Pirates, would that be politically viable or something anyone relevant would even consider trying?

If they really pushed for it, the Pirate Party would break apart because of this. Hence CDU and Pirates wouldn't have a majority anymore anyway.

[Middle-aged Europe]

There's coming some criticism from within the CDU as well as the media on how quickly Angela Merkel has fired Norbert Röttgen. For starters, it was unprecedented that a federal minister gets dismissed because he lost a state election. Some where also surprised how easily Merkel was willing to stab Röttgen in the back, considering he had been one of her closest political allies within the CDU up until a few weeks ago.

So there's some concern that Angela Merkel turns into the Darth Vader of German politics: Everyone who fails her or is not of use to her anymore gets quickly disposed of (so far it had only happened to people who stood in her way).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Maybe they should just call themselves the  Labour Party?

I doubt that any party in Germany would call itself just "Arbeitspartei" or "Arbeiterpartei". The former just sounds silly, despite the fact that it is the way the Israeli Labor Party is usually translated into German (it literally means "work party"). And the latter has a ring of mid-19th century nostalgia to it ("workers' party").

"Partei der Arbeit" would be another alternative translation, but it sounds just as anachronistic (and it may evoke some negative connotations, since it's also the German translation for the ruling party in North Korea).

Possibly one reason why "Labour Party" is usually not translated into German at all, provided it refers to a political party from an English-speaking country.

[Middle-aged Europe]

How about "die Partei der Democratischen Linke?"

The PDS/Left Party considered naming itself as such back in 2005, but they found out that a (very tiny) group using that name already existed.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And haven't there been more or less serious rumours about Friedrich Merz and his potential plan to found a new federal party right of the CDU?

Those rumours have popped up now and then for the past ten years or so. Originally, Friedrich Merz was supposed to found it, but he has not been relevant for quite some time now. Other people frequently mentioned as wannabe right-wing party founders include Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, Wolfgang Clement (originally SPD, now much closer to the FDP), Thilo Sarrazin, Hans-Olaf Henkel, possibly even Roland Koch. So basically anyone who has been described as "right-wing" in some sense and who's not actively engaged in party politics anymore. Would George W. Bush try to obtain German citizenship it would probably lead to rumours that he plans to found a new right-wing party in Germany as well.

[Middle-aged Europe]

A random question to Germans:
If the SPD ran on a platform of giving more money to Greece in 2013, would this type of message perhaps work?  Seems like it could unite the anti-bailout grumblers and the pro-growth camp.  

"The reason why we've had to give so many bailouts to Greece is because we've forced these austerity measures on Greece that have stifled the possibility of economic growth, which in turn makes it even harder for Greece to pay off its debt, so we've had to keep bailing them out with our tax money.  So why not give them the room to grow with more money, so that then they can actually pay down their debt rather than just avoid default and kick the can a bit further down the road, and we can finally be done with handing out bailouts?"

Would that work, or would Germans just scratch their heads?

^^

While this doesn't contradict the SPD's basic position on the issue, they surely would avoid phrasing it as "Germany gives more money to Greece".

The SPD has proposed a "European Growth Compact". Phrasing the narrative as "Europe provides money in order to generate growth in Europe" is the only way it may be accepted by German voters, although some may still figure out that it essentially means "Germany gives money to Greece" in the end.