UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[Middle-aged Europe]

Not sure if the EU goes along with prolonging this thing every two weeks now... certainly not if you'd ask Emmanuel Macron. It could come down to a "either no-deal Brexit now or extension till December 31 with participation in the EP elections" offer.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1113140013263400962


https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1113136822937440256

[Middle-aged Europe]

Junior minister for Wales Nigel Adam has resigned in protest over May's decision to seek a deal with Labour.

Oh noes, seeking a compromise with the leader of the opposition in times of a national political crisis! We can't have any of that!

Seriously, some people in the cabinet seem to have become totally disconnected from reality.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1113857756463804421

https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1113858741471010816

[Middle-aged Europe]

Donald Tusk is planning to propose a Article 50 "flextension" of one year with the option for the UK to leave the EU at any given time during that period once Parliament has passed some form of Brexit deal. This propsal would require the UK to participate in the EP elections though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Theresa May is going to ask for an "flextension" until June 30, conceding that the UK may have to participate in the EP elections:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/05/donald-tusk-will-tell-eu-to-back-brexit-flextension-for-uk

Question is now how the European Council is gonna react to it. Last time May had ultimately to accept anything that EU was willing to offer her, so her request doesn't necessarily mean much aside from her wish to not have a no-deal Brexit on April 12. The June 30 date (much earlier than Tusk's 2020 date) is more intended to appease the "Leavers" in her own cabinet it seems.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Personally I think that either a no-deal Brexit or the UK remaining in the EU for good are the most likely outcomes at this point. And considering that a majority of Parliament has made it clear that a no-deal Brexit is their least preferred option a continued a EU membership may even a bit likelier now, unless a "accidental" no-deal Brexit happens due to the tactical brinkmanship of the various factions involved. Until Article 50 is actually revoked for good we still have a long and difficult process before us during which many things could go wrong. The European Council also remains a wild card since we don't know if and when Macron will start to push for kicking out the EU no matter what.

[Middle-aged Europe]

We're of course just getting the Labour PoV from this. Not surprised May can't make any meaningful compromise; well over half her party would never back it.

I guess this could be considered a preview of what will happen with the EU next.

May: I want an extension until June 30! My strategy: Holding a fourth meaningful vote on my Brexit deal in Parliament. This time it will pass, I promise.

EU: You can either have a no-deal Brexit now or an extension until March 2020 with participation in the EP elections. Take it or leave it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It seems to me that Labour should jump on a confirmatory referendum on May's deal.

Remain vs. May's deal...I think we know how that would turn out. 😁

Exactly, which is why the Tories won't agree with it.

But if that’s May’s offer to Labour, then I see a narrow chance of it getting through the Commons with Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, and SNP votes. It would destroy the Tory party, but maybe May just doesn’t care about the ERG and their ilk in her party any more.

If Brexit leads to the breakup of the Tories (which is not and perhaps never was a completely impossible scenario goven the variety of opinions on the EU membership within that party), that's the question I would then like to ask David Cameron, Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Jacob Rees-Mogg etc.: Why did you assume that holding a referendum on the EU membership and/or pushing for leaving the EU could be survived by your party?

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, Tusk and Merkel both seem to be supporting a year-long Article 50 extension now, while Macron still thinks that this period is way too long.

Meanwhile, the House of Commons approved May's request to extend Article 50 until June 30. The most no votes ironically came from the Tories:

Conservatives: 97
DUP: 9
Labour: 3 (Ronnie Campbell, Stephen Hepburn, Kate Hoey)
Independents: 1 (Frank Field)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Tusk's draft for tomorrow's summit:

[Middle-aged Europe]

Deal or No Deal UK edition.

Indecision 2019: The Second Extension

[Middle-aged Europe]

Macron is expected to demand that the UK is giving up its seat on the European Commission in exchange for a long extension:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/10/uk-set-to-lose-european-commissioner-role-over-brexit-delay

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, it is being reported that Merkel wants an extension until December 31, while Macron wants another short extension until immediately before the EP election in May unless the UK is willing to make further concessions. A compromise extension until October is being floated.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Majority of EU leaders seem to favour a long extension, while France seems to insist now that no extension should last beyond June (ironically taking Theresa May's position now).

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1116085295794073600


https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1116089804419158016

[Middle-aged Europe]

That may well be one of Macron's motivations, but since it seems most other EU states did not agree with him it is a bit of a moot point. What if we ask for another extension as Halloween approaches? Or even have another referendum and vote to stay after all??

Neither of these scenarios are of course entirely impossible at this point.

Ultimately Macron always seems to budge, since he doesn't want to be sole head of state responsible for a no-deal Brexit with everybody being angry at him. It would be a different situation of more states were to switch over to his side though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

With the pressure suddenly all gone, it seems like nothing important happens with regard to Brexit now. A EP election campaign is slowly starting with the bizarre backdrop that it's not 100% certain that this election will actually occur (although I'd say chances for that are certainly higher than 50%). So, are they gonna those six months now to gradually come to the conclusion to hold a second referendun?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Former Deputy Prime Minister Michael Heseltine has had the Tory whip in the House of Lords suspended for announcing that he plans to vote Lib Dem on Thursday.

Heseltine is anti-Brexit, the LibDems are anti-Brexit, while nobody really knows what the Tories are about anymore.

So, instead of suspending him, they should just outright admit that it's their own fault that Heseltine is voting LibDem.

[Middle-aged Europe]

FINALLY!

But I already pity the fool who will succeed her.