UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 05, 2024, 11:51:53 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread (search mode)
Thread note
Any attempt at thread derailing will result in banishment. (Edit: damn, you guys really behaved yourselves)


Pages: [1]
Author Topic: UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread  (Read 76616 times)
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,286
Ukraine


« on: December 12, 2019, 07:38:08 AM »

I am looking forward to an orderly election today, which will eliminate the need for a violent bloodbath.

End communication.
Logged
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,286
Ukraine


« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2019, 12:35:44 PM »

Hopefully turnout will be ~80%.

Looks like UK voters want to settle this once and for all.

Problem is that one half of the electorate wants it settled in an entirely different manner than the other half, so the end result could be a stalemate again.
Logged
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,286
Ukraine


« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2019, 06:21:11 PM »

Well.... it finally happened with Corbyn what people predicted would happened last time around. In 2017 he got lucky.
Logged
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,286
Ukraine


« Reply #3 on: December 13, 2019, 02:00:50 PM »

Not much to say about the results, other than I expected it (even a slightly larger Conservative majority).

Weird that turnout was just 67% and dropping compared with 2017.

You should probably never go with the stupid Election Day reports of „long lines“ ...

With significantly higher turnout there probably would have been a hung parliament again, because no suppressed Labour vote.
Logged
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,286
Ukraine


« Reply #4 on: December 13, 2019, 02:11:40 PM »

Not much to say about the results, other than I expected it (even a slightly larger Conservative majority).

Weird that turnout was just 67% and dropping compared with 2017.

You should probably never go with the stupid Election Day reports of „long lines“ ...

With significantly higher turnout there probably would have been a hung parliament again, because no suppressed Labour vote.

That’s not how things work ...

Oh, but it does.

Many elections are decided by one side staying home in greater numbers than the other on election day. Many political campaign strategies are even specifically designed to discourage the opponent's potential voters from voting.
Logged
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,286
Ukraine


« Reply #5 on: December 13, 2019, 02:42:10 PM »
« Edited: December 13, 2019, 02:45:52 PM by Ye Olde Europe »

Turnout hasn't often borne much correlation to how well Tories or Labour do - for instance, turnout was consistently higher during the Thatcher & Major years than the Blair-Brown ones. It also - before the more recent elections - tended to be higher in Conservative seats than in Labour areas, and the highest-turnout election in modern times (1992) saw the Tories - not Labour - do much better than polls expected.

Personally I wasn't really advocating in favour of "only Labour benefits from high turnout all the time". I was just saying that it would have been the case here.



How would those Labour voters who stayed home in previously loyal constituencies have voted? No way to know, of course, but the idea that Labour was defeated by low turnout or 'suppressed votes' (who exactly was doing the suppressing?) I just don't find believable. Certainly the opinion polls pointed almost exactly to yesterday's outcome, so it seems unlikely that turnout rates disproportionately benefited one side or the other.

My hypothesis is based on the phenomenon that at least (most) core voters of a specific party tend be more likely to stay at home and not vote at all rather than to suddenly switch to the opposing party they never cared to vote for. Because the latter represents a much higher psychological threshold the core voter needs to overcome (which in turn forms the very basis of actual voter suppression tactics and explains why they work). But maybe "suppressed" was the wrong choice of words here. If anything, Corbyn and Labour managed to suppress themselves of course.
Logged
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,286
Ukraine


« Reply #6 on: December 13, 2019, 03:53:56 PM »

Not much to say about the results, other than I expected it (even a slightly larger Conservative majority).

Weird that turnout was just 67% and dropping compared with 2017.

You should probably never go with the stupid Election Day reports of „long lines“ ...

With significantly higher turnout there probably would have been a hung parliament again, because no suppressed Labour vote.

You may mean "depressed" rather than "suppressed"?


Correct.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.025 seconds with 10 queries.